National Capital Bank Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Under 223.10
| NACB Stock | USD 85.00 15.00 21.43% |
National |
National Capital Target Price Odds to finish below 223.10
The tendency of National Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 223.10 after 90 days |
| 85.00 | 90 days | 223.10 | about 90.3 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of National Capital to stay under $ 223.10 after 90 days from now is about 90.3 (This National Capital Bank probability density function shows the probability of National Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of National Capital Bank price to stay between its current price of $ 85.00 and $ 223.10 at the end of the 90-day period is about 63.59 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days National Capital Bank has a beta of -46.3. This indicates as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding National Capital Bank are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, National Capital is expected to outperform its benchmark. In addition to that National Capital Bank has an alpha of 49.2487, implying that it can generate a 49.25 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). National Capital Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for National Capital
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Capital Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of National Capital's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
National Capital Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. National Capital is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the National Capital's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold National Capital Bank, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of National Capital within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 49.25 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -46.3 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 71.87 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.33 |
National Capital Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of National Capital for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for National Capital Bank can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| National Capital is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| National Capital appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues |
National Capital Technical Analysis
National Capital's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. National Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of National Capital Bank. In general, you should focus on analyzing National Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
National Capital Predictive Forecast Models
National Capital's time-series forecasting models is one of many National Capital's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary National Capital's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about National Capital Bank
Checking the ongoing alerts about National Capital for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for National Capital Bank help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| National Capital is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| National Capital appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues |
Other Information on Investing in National Pink Sheet
National Capital financial ratios help investors to determine whether National Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in National with respect to the benefits of owning National Capital security.