National Capital Pink Sheet Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| NACB Stock | USD 66.50 0.26 0.39% |
National Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast National Capital stock prices and determine the direction of National Capital Bank's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of National Capital's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The relative strength index (RSI) of National Capital's share price is at 50. This indicates that the pink sheet is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling National Capital, making its price go up or down. Momentum 50
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using National Capital hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of National Capital Bank from the perspective of National Capital response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of National Capital Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 66.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.34. National Capital after-hype prediction price | USD 66.5 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
National |
National Capital Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine National price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for National using various technical indicators. When you analyze National charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
National Capital Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of National Capital Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 66.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36, mean absolute percentage error of 0.41, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.34.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict National Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that National Capital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
National Capital Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest National Capital | National Capital Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
National Capital Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting National Capital's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. National Capital's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 65.48 and 67.66, respectively. We have considered National Capital's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of National Capital pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent National Capital pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.3724 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0711 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3557 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0053 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 21.3433 |
Predictive Modules for National Capital
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Capital Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of National Capital's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
National Capital After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of National Capital at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in National Capital or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of National Capital, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
National Capital Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting National Capital's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on National Capital's historical news coverage. National Capital's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 65.42 and 67.58, respectively. We have considered National Capital's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
National Capital is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of National Capital Bank is based on 3 months time horizon.
National Capital Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as National Capital is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading National Capital backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with National Capital, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
66.50 | 66.50 | 0.00 |
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National Capital Hype Timeline
National Capital Bank is now traded for 66.50. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. National is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.05%. %. The volatility of related hype on National Capital is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 66.50. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 15.81. National Capital Bank last dividend was issued on the 13th of February 2023. The entity had 2:1 split on the 2nd of April 2002. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of National Capital to cross-verify your projections.National Capital Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to National Capital's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict National Capital's future price movements. Getting to know how National Capital's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how National Capital may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PTBS | Potomac Bancshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.38 | (0.02) | 2.54 | (3.07) | 8.39 | |
| NWPP | New Peoples Bankshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.57 | 0.07 | 7.94 | (3.08) | 27.06 | |
| EFIN | Eastern Michigan Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.89 | 0.03 | 1.75 | (2.06) | 4.96 | |
| CBKM | Consumers Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.76 | 0.12 | 2.65 | (1.42) | 7.54 | |
| CTUY | Century Next Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.32 | 0.11 | 1.66 | (0.89) | 10.47 | |
| CZBS | Citizens Bancshares Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.39 | (3.20) | 6.81 | |
| SEBC | Southeastern Banking Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.25 | 0.05 | 2.02 | (2.56) | 13.25 | |
| BKOR | Oak Ridge Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.88 | (0.35) | 1.49 | |
| JBTC | Jonestown Bank and | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.02 | 0.15 | 3.23 | (1.36) | 9.98 | |
| JUVF | Juniata Valley Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.59 | (3.16) | 6.26 |
Other Forecasting Options for National Capital
For every potential investor in National, whether a beginner or expert, National Capital's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. National Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in National. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying National Capital's price trends.National Capital Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with National Capital pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of National Capital could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing National Capital by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
National Capital Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how National Capital pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading National Capital shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying National Capital pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify National Capital Bank entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 66.5 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 66.5 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.13) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.26) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 50.78 |
National Capital Risk Indicators
The analysis of National Capital's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in National Capital's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting national pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.4388 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.7005 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.04 | |||
| Variance | 1.09 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.59 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.4907 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.26) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for National Capital
The number of cover stories for National Capital depends on current market conditions and National Capital's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that National Capital is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about National Capital's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in National Pink Sheet
National Capital financial ratios help investors to determine whether National Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in National with respect to the benefits of owning National Capital security.