Natural Alternatives International Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.04
| NAII Stock | USD 4.21 0.04 0.94% |
Natural |
Natural Alternatives Target Price Odds to finish below 0.04
The tendency of Natural Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 0.04 or more in 90 days |
| 4.21 | 90 days | 0.04 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Natural Alternatives to drop to $ 0.04 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Natural Alternatives International probability density function shows the probability of Natural Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Natural Alternatives price to stay between $ 0.04 and its current price of $4.21 at the end of the 90-day period is about 13.34 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Natural Alternatives has a beta of 0.21. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Natural Alternatives average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Natural Alternatives International will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Natural Alternatives International has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Natural Alternatives Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Natural Alternatives
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Natural Alternatives. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Natural Alternatives Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Natural Alternatives is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Natural Alternatives' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Natural Alternatives International, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Natural Alternatives within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.35 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.21 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.91 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.1 |
Natural Alternatives Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Natural Alternatives for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Natural Alternatives can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Natural Alternatives generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Natural Alternatives has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 113.8 M. Net Loss for the year was (7.22 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 18.16 M. | |
| Natural Alternatives International currently holds about 21.83 M in cash with (1.5 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.59. | |
| Natural Alternatives has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 21.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Natural Alternatives International Earns Buy Rating from Analysts at StockNews.com |
Natural Alternatives Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Natural Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Natural Alternatives' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Natural Alternatives' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 12 M |
Natural Alternatives Technical Analysis
Natural Alternatives' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Natural Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Natural Alternatives International. In general, you should focus on analyzing Natural Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Natural Alternatives Predictive Forecast Models
Natural Alternatives' time-series forecasting models is one of many Natural Alternatives' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Natural Alternatives' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Natural Alternatives
Checking the ongoing alerts about Natural Alternatives for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Natural Alternatives help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Natural Alternatives generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Natural Alternatives has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 113.8 M. Net Loss for the year was (7.22 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 18.16 M. | |
| Natural Alternatives International currently holds about 21.83 M in cash with (1.5 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.59. | |
| Natural Alternatives has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 21.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Natural Alternatives International Earns Buy Rating from Analysts at StockNews.com |
Check out Natural Alternatives Backtesting, Natural Alternatives Valuation, Natural Alternatives Correlation, Natural Alternatives Hype Analysis, Natural Alternatives Volatility, Natural Alternatives History as well as Natural Alternatives Performance. You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Is Personal Care Products space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Natural Alternatives. If investors know Natural will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Natural Alternatives listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.741 | Earnings Share (1.44) | Revenue Per Share 19.383 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.265 | Return On Assets (0.04) |
The market value of Natural Alternatives is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Natural that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Natural Alternatives' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Natural Alternatives' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Natural Alternatives' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Natural Alternatives' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Natural Alternatives' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Natural Alternatives is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Natural Alternatives' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.