Natural Alternatives International Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| NAII Stock | USD 4.31 0.10 2.38% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Natural Alternatives International is 'Sell'. The recommendation algorithm takes into account all of Natural Alternatives' available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
Check out Natural Alternatives Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Natural and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards Natural Alternatives International. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in gross domestic product.
Natural |
Execute Natural Alternatives Buy or Sell Advice
The Natural recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Natural Alternatives International. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Natural Alternatives International or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Natural Alternatives' advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Sell
Market Performance | Very Weak | Details | |
Volatility | Unstable | Details | |
Hype Condition | Low key | Details | |
Current Valuation | Fairly Valued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Below Average | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Slowly supersedes the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Impartial | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Strong Sell | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Frail | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
Natural Alternatives Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Natural Alternatives generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Natural Alternatives has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 113.8 M. Net Loss for the year was (7.22 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 18.16 M. | |
| Natural Alternatives International currently holds about 21.83 M in cash with (1.5 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.59. | |
| Natural Alternatives has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 21.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Natural Alternatives International Earns Buy Rating from Analysts at StockNews.com |
Natural Alternatives Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Natural Alternatives' historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Natural Alternatives' future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Natural Alternatives daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Natural Alternatives International price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Natural Alternatives returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Natural Alternatives.
| Mean Return | -0.31 | Value At Risk | -6.12 | Potential Upside | 7.14 | Standard Deviation | 4.63 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Natural Alternatives historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Natural Stock Institutional Investors
| Shares | Integrated Wealth Concepts Llc | 2024-06-30 | 12 K | State Street Corp | 2024-06-30 | 11.7 K | Blackrock Inc | 2024-06-30 | 10.9 K | Royal Bank Of Canada | 2024-06-30 | 10.8 K | James Investment Research, Inc. | 2024-09-30 | 10 K | Goss Wealth Management Llc | 2024-06-30 | 10 K | Tower Research Capital Llc | 2024-06-30 | 1 K | Ubs Group Ag | 2024-06-30 | 562 | Capital Advisors, Ltd. Llc | 2024-06-30 | 82.0 | Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc. | 2024-09-30 | 426.7 K | Caldwell Sutter Capital Inc | 2024-09-30 | 414.5 K |
Natural Alternatives Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change In Cash | 5.4M | 1.7M | (10.3M) | (8.2M) | (1.6M) | (1.5M) | |
| Free Cash Flow | (850K) | 15.7M | (14.6M) | (6.5M) | (4.5M) | (4.3M) | |
| Depreciation | 4.0M | 4.3M | 4.2M | 4.3M | 4.6M | 2.8M | |
| Capital Expenditures | 4.5M | 5.1M | 26.5M | 13.5M | 3.0M | 4.6M | |
| Net Income | (1.6M) | 10.8M | 10.7M | 2.5M | (7.2M) | (6.9M) | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 30.5M | 32.1M | 21.8M | 13.6M | 12.0M | 11.4M | |
| Change To Inventory | (2.0M) | 966K | (5.5M) | 2.8M | 5.4M | 5.7M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 6.2M | 3.4M | 2.7M | 1.4M | 6.1M | 6.4M | |
| Change To Netincome | 4.9M | 4.6M | 4.4M | 1.5M | 1.7M | 1.6M | |
| Investments | (4.5M) | (5.0M) | (26.5M) | (13.5M) | (3.0M) | (3.2M) |
Natural Alternatives Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Natural Alternatives or Personal Care Products sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Natural Alternatives' price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Natural stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.35 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.21 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.60 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.1 |
Natural Alternatives Volatility Alert
Natural Alternatives International exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -0.58 and kurtosis of 3.67. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Natural Alternatives' stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Natural Alternatives' stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Natural Alternatives Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Natural Alternatives' fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Natural Alternatives' direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Natural Alternatives and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Natural Alternatives or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Natural Alternatives' fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Natural Alternatives by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Natural Alternatives to competition |
| Fundamentals | Natural Alternatives | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | -0.0842 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | -0.036 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | (0.06) % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.08 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 79.37 M | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 6.2 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 21.24 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 30.85 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 8.21 K | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 13.08 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 0.33 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 0.23 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 113.8 M | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 18.16 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | (4.46 M) | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | (7.22 M) | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 21.83 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 3.59 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 60.29 M | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 0.36 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 3.30 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 12.76 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | (1.5 M) | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 0.51 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | (1.44) X | 3.12 X |
| Number Of Employees | 296 | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 0.59 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 26.1 M | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 162.34 M | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 72.97 M | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 38.15 M | 1.48 B |
| Current Asset | 55.88 M | 9.34 B |
| Current Liabilities | 19.2 M | 7.9 B |
Note: Disposition of 5000 shares by Ledoux Mark A of Natural Alternatives at 15.94 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Natural Alternatives Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Natural . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
About Natural Alternatives Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Natural Alternatives International? Buying financial instruments such as Natural Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
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Check out Natural Alternatives Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.
Is Personal Care Products space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Natural Alternatives. If investors know Natural will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Natural Alternatives listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.741 | Earnings Share (1.44) | Revenue Per Share 19.383 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.265 | Return On Assets (0.04) |
The market value of Natural Alternatives is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Natural that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Natural Alternatives' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Natural Alternatives' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Natural Alternatives' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Natural Alternatives' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Natural Alternatives' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Natural Alternatives is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Natural Alternatives' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.