Neste Oil (Finland) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 11.41
| NESTE Stock | EUR 14.18 0.10 0.70% |
Neste |
Neste Oil Target Price Odds to finish below 11.41
The tendency of Neste Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 11.41 or more in 90 days |
| 14.18 | 90 days | 11.41 | about 1.13 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Neste Oil to drop to € 11.41 or more in 90 days from now is about 1.13 (This Neste Oil Oyj probability density function shows the probability of Neste Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Neste Oil Oyj price to stay between € 11.41 and its current price of €14.18 at the end of the 90-day period is about 17.11 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Neste Oil Oyj has a beta of -0.2. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Neste Oil are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Neste Oil Oyj is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Neste Oil Oyj has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Neste Oil Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Neste Oil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Neste Oil Oyj. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Neste Oil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Neste Oil Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Neste Oil is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Neste Oil's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Neste Oil Oyj, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Neste Oil within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.42 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.2 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.02 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.2 |
Neste Oil Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Neste Oil for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Neste Oil Oyj can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Neste Oil Oyj generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 37.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Neste Oil Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Neste Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Neste Oil's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Neste Oil's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 768.1 M |
Neste Oil Technical Analysis
Neste Oil's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Neste Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Neste Oil Oyj. In general, you should focus on analyzing Neste Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Neste Oil Predictive Forecast Models
Neste Oil's time-series forecasting models is one of many Neste Oil's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Neste Oil's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Neste Oil Oyj
Checking the ongoing alerts about Neste Oil for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Neste Oil Oyj help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Neste Oil Oyj generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 37.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Neste Stock
Neste Oil financial ratios help investors to determine whether Neste Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Neste with respect to the benefits of owning Neste Oil security.