National Bankshares Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 32.04
| NKSH Stock | USD 32.04 1.32 4.30% |
National |
National Bankshares Target Price Odds to finish over 32.04
The tendency of National Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 32.04 | 90 days | 32.04 | about 1.13 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of National Bankshares to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 1.13 (This National Bankshares probability density function shows the probability of National Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.4 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, National Bankshares will likely underperform. Additionally National Bankshares has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. National Bankshares Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for National Bankshares
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Bankshares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of National Bankshares' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
National Bankshares Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. National Bankshares is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the National Bankshares' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold National Bankshares, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of National Bankshares within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.40 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.96 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0017 |
National Bankshares Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of National Bankshares for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for National Bankshares can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| National Bankshares is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: EverSource Wealth Advisors LLC Sells 816 Shares of Merck Co., Inc. |
National Bankshares Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of National Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential National Bankshares' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. National Bankshares' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 631.6 M |
National Bankshares Technical Analysis
National Bankshares' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. National Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of National Bankshares. In general, you should focus on analyzing National Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
National Bankshares Predictive Forecast Models
National Bankshares' time-series forecasting models is one of many National Bankshares' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary National Bankshares' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about National Bankshares
Checking the ongoing alerts about National Bankshares for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for National Bankshares help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| National Bankshares is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: EverSource Wealth Advisors LLC Sells 816 Shares of Merck Co., Inc. |
Check out National Bankshares Backtesting, National Bankshares Valuation, National Bankshares Correlation, National Bankshares Hype Analysis, National Bankshares Volatility, National Bankshares History as well as National Bankshares Performance. For more detail on how to invest in National Stock please use our How to Invest in National Bankshares guide.You can also try the Commodity Channel module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of National Bankshares. If investors know National will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about National Bankshares listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.19) | Dividend Share 1.51 | Earnings Share 1.46 | Revenue Per Share 7.192 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.051 |
The market value of National Bankshares is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of National that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of National Bankshares' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is National Bankshares' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because National Bankshares' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect National Bankshares' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between National Bankshares' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if National Bankshares is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, National Bankshares' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.