National Bankshares Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| NKSH Stock | USD 36.41 0.20 0.55% |
National Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of National Bankshares' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of National Bankshares' stock price is under 69. This indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of 1st of February 2026. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling National, making its price go up or down. Momentum 69
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using National Bankshares hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of National Bankshares from the perspective of National Bankshares response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of National Bankshares on the next trading day is expected to be 36.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.79 and the sum of the absolute errors of 48.47. National Bankshares after-hype prediction price | USD 36.42 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of National Bankshares to cross-verify your projections. National Bankshares Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine National price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for National using various technical indicators. When you analyze National charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
National Bankshares Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of National Bankshares on the next trading day is expected to be 36.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.79, mean absolute percentage error of 0.92, and the sum of the absolute errors of 48.47.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict National Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that National Bankshares' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
National Bankshares Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest National Bankshares | National Bankshares Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
National Bankshares Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting National Bankshares' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. National Bankshares' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 34.87 and 38.26, respectively. We have considered National Bankshares' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of National Bankshares stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent National Bankshares stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.0301 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7946 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.025 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 48.4723 |
Predictive Modules for National Bankshares
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Bankshares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of National Bankshares' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
National Bankshares After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of National Bankshares at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in National Bankshares or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of National Bankshares, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
National Bankshares Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting National Bankshares' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on National Bankshares' historical news coverage. National Bankshares' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 34.72 and 38.12, respectively. We have considered National Bankshares' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
National Bankshares is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of National Bankshares is based on 3 months time horizon.
National Bankshares Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as National Bankshares is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading National Bankshares backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with National Bankshares, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.41 | 1.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
36.41 | 36.42 | 0.03 |
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National Bankshares Hype Timeline
National Bankshares is now traded for 36.41. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. National is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 36.42 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.03%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.41%. The volatility of related hype on National Bankshares is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 36.41. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 85.31 M. Net Income was 7.62 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 55.58 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of National Bankshares to cross-verify your projections.National Bankshares Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to National Bankshares' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict National Bankshares' future price movements. Getting to know how National Bankshares' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how National Bankshares may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EFSI | Eagle Financial Services | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.93 | 0.06 | 2.36 | (1.53) | 5.83 | |
| ATLO | Ames National | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.28 | 0.25 | 2.71 | (1.19) | 5.33 | |
| MNSB | Mainstreet Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.22 | 0.11 | 2.63 | (2.46) | 8.15 | |
| CBNA | Chain Bridge Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.98 | 0.12 | 3.33 | (4.04) | 10.70 | |
| VABK | Virginia National Bankshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.46 | 0.02 | 3.27 | (2.27) | 8.40 | |
| FRAF | Franklin Financial Services | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.25 | 0.07 | 3.20 | (2.67) | 15.31 | |
| OVBC | Ohio Valley Banc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.51 | 0.15 | 3.03 | (1.29) | 9.11 | |
| UBFO | United Security Bancshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.77 | 0.16 | 3.15 | (1.38) | 5.92 | |
| FCCO | First Community | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.95 | 0.1 | 2.21 | (1.42) | 6.74 | |
| MRBK | Meridian Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.78 | 0.21 | 3.72 | (1.83) | 9.93 |
Other Forecasting Options for National Bankshares
For every potential investor in National, whether a beginner or expert, National Bankshares' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. National Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in National. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying National Bankshares' price trends.National Bankshares Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with National Bankshares stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of National Bankshares could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing National Bankshares by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
National Bankshares Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how National Bankshares stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading National Bankshares shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying National Bankshares stock market strength indicators, traders can identify National Bankshares entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
National Bankshares Risk Indicators
The analysis of National Bankshares' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in National Bankshares' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting national stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.18 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8017 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.7 | |||
| Variance | 2.88 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.47 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.6428 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.51) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for National Bankshares
The number of cover stories for National Bankshares depends on current market conditions and National Bankshares' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that National Bankshares is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about National Bankshares' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of National Bankshares to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in National Stock please use our How to Invest in National Bankshares guide.You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.
Is there potential for Regional Banks market expansion? Will National introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of National Bankshares. Anticipated expansion of National directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about National Bankshares listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Investors evaluate National Bankshares using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating National Bankshares' intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause National Bankshares' market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between National Bankshares' intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding National Bankshares should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, National Bankshares' market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.