Northern Bear (UK) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 49.39
| NTBR Stock | 55.50 2.00 3.74% |
Northern |
Northern Bear Target Price Odds to finish below 49.39
The tendency of Northern Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 49.39 or more in 90 days |
| 55.50 | 90 days | 49.39 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Northern Bear to drop to 49.39 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Northern Bear Plc probability density function shows the probability of Northern Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Northern Bear Plc price to stay between 49.39 and its current price of 55.5 at the end of the 90-day period is about 87.34 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Northern Bear Plc has a beta of -0.0187. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Northern Bear are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Northern Bear Plc is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Northern Bear Plc has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Northern Bear Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Northern Bear
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Northern Bear Plc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Northern Bear Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Northern Bear is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Northern Bear's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Northern Bear Plc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Northern Bear within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.47 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
Northern Bear Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Northern Bear for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Northern Bear Plc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Northern Bear Plc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 48.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Northern Bear Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Northern Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Northern Bear's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Northern Bear's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 17.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 978 K |
Northern Bear Technical Analysis
Northern Bear's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Northern Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Northern Bear Plc. In general, you should focus on analyzing Northern Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Northern Bear Predictive Forecast Models
Northern Bear's time-series forecasting models is one of many Northern Bear's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Northern Bear's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Northern Bear Plc
Checking the ongoing alerts about Northern Bear for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Northern Bear Plc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Northern Bear Plc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 48.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Additional Tools for Northern Stock Analysis
When running Northern Bear's price analysis, check to measure Northern Bear's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Northern Bear is operating at the current time. Most of Northern Bear's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Northern Bear's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Northern Bear's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Northern Bear to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.