Novartis (Mexico) Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1918.1
| NVSN Stock | MXN 2,004 134.33 6.28% |
Novartis |
Novartis Target Price Odds to finish below 1918.1
The tendency of Novartis Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 1,918 or more in 90 days |
| 2,004 | 90 days | 1,918 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Novartis to drop to 1,918 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Novartis AG probability density function shows the probability of Novartis Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Novartis AG price to stay between 1,918 and its current price of 2004.17 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Novartis has a beta of 0.14. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Novartis average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Novartis AG will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Novartis AG has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Novartis Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Novartis
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Novartis AG. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Novartis Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Novartis is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Novartis' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Novartis AG, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Novartis within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.1 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.14 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 45.53 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.16 |
Novartis Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Novartis for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Novartis AG can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Novartis AG generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Novartis AG has accumulated 20.24 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.67, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Novartis AG has a current ratio of 0.88, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Novartis until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Novartis' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Novartis AG sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Novartis to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Novartis' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. |
Novartis Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Novartis Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Novartis' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Novartis' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.1 B |
Novartis Technical Analysis
Novartis' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Novartis Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Novartis AG. In general, you should focus on analyzing Novartis Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Novartis Predictive Forecast Models
Novartis' time-series forecasting models is one of many Novartis' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Novartis' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Novartis AG
Checking the ongoing alerts about Novartis for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Novartis AG help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Novartis AG generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Novartis AG has accumulated 20.24 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.67, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Novartis AG has a current ratio of 0.88, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Novartis until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Novartis' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Novartis AG sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Novartis to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Novartis' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. |
Additional Tools for Novartis Stock Analysis
When running Novartis' price analysis, check to measure Novartis' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Novartis is operating at the current time. Most of Novartis' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Novartis' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Novartis' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Novartis to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.