Northwest Natural Gas Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 38.89
| NWN Stock | USD 43.21 1.09 2.59% |
Northwest |
Northwest Natural Target Price Odds to finish below 38.89
The tendency of Northwest Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 38.89 or more in 90 days |
| 43.21 | 90 days | 38.89 | about 18.14 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Northwest Natural to drop to $ 38.89 or more in 90 days from now is about 18.14 (This Northwest Natural Gas probability density function shows the probability of Northwest Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Northwest Natural Gas price to stay between $ 38.89 and its current price of $43.21 at the end of the 90-day period is about 81.54 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.01 . This indicates Northwest Natural Gas market returns are highly reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Northwest Natural is expected to follow. Additionally Northwest Natural Gas has an alpha of 0.0576, implying that it can generate a 0.0576 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Northwest Natural Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Northwest Natural
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Northwest Natural Gas. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Northwest Natural's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Northwest Natural Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Northwest Natural is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Northwest Natural's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Northwest Natural Gas, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Northwest Natural within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.06 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.01 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.99 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.05 |
Northwest Natural Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Northwest Natural for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Northwest Natural Gas can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Northwest Natural Gas has 1.75 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 1.18, which is OK given its current industry classification. Northwest Natural Gas has a current ratio of 0.65, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Northwest to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| Over 80.0% of Northwest Natural shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 15th of November 2024 Northwest Natural paid $ 0.49 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Northwest Natural Holdings Problems Go Beyond Weak Profit |
Northwest Natural Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Northwest Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Northwest Natural's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Northwest Natural's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 36.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 32.9 M |
Northwest Natural Technical Analysis
Northwest Natural's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Northwest Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Northwest Natural Gas. In general, you should focus on analyzing Northwest Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Northwest Natural Predictive Forecast Models
Northwest Natural's time-series forecasting models is one of many Northwest Natural's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Northwest Natural's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Northwest Natural Gas
Checking the ongoing alerts about Northwest Natural for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Northwest Natural Gas help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Northwest Natural Gas has 1.75 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 1.18, which is OK given its current industry classification. Northwest Natural Gas has a current ratio of 0.65, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Northwest to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| Over 80.0% of Northwest Natural shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 15th of November 2024 Northwest Natural paid $ 0.49 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Northwest Natural Holdings Problems Go Beyond Weak Profit |
Check out Northwest Natural Backtesting, Northwest Natural Valuation, Northwest Natural Correlation, Northwest Natural Hype Analysis, Northwest Natural Volatility, Northwest Natural History as well as Northwest Natural Performance. You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.
Is Gas Utilities space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Northwest Natural. If investors know Northwest will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Northwest Natural listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.16) | Dividend Share 1.95 | Earnings Share 2.1 | Revenue Per Share 29.929 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) |
The market value of Northwest Natural Gas is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Northwest that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Northwest Natural's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Northwest Natural's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Northwest Natural's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Northwest Natural's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Northwest Natural's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Northwest Natural is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Northwest Natural's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.