Northwest Natural Stock Forward View
| NWN Stock | USD 46.56 0.82 1.79% |
Northwest Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Northwest Natural's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Northwest Natural's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Northwest Natural fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of Northwest Natural's share price is at 52. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Northwest Natural, making its price go up or down. Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.29 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.44 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.9233 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.985 | Wall Street Target Price 54.3333 |
Using Northwest Natural hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Northwest Natural Gas from the perspective of Northwest Natural response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Northwest Natural using Northwest Natural's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Northwest using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Northwest Natural's stock price.
Northwest Natural Short Interest
An investor who is long Northwest Natural may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Northwest Natural and may potentially protect profits, hedge Northwest Natural with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 43.6372 | Short Percent 0.0391 | Short Ratio 4.2 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.2 M | 50 Day MA 47.0312 |
Northwest Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Northwest Natural Gas on the next trading day is expected to be 46.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.27.Northwest Natural Gas Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Northwest Natural's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Northwest. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Northwest can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Northwest Natural Gas. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Northwest Natural's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Northwest Natural.
Northwest Natural Implied Volatility | 0.73 |
Northwest Natural's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Northwest Natural Gas stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Northwest Natural's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Northwest Natural stock will not fluctuate a lot when Northwest Natural's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Northwest Natural Gas on the next trading day is expected to be 46.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.27. Northwest Natural after-hype prediction price | USD 46.56 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Northwest | Build AI portfolio with Northwest Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Northwest contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Northwest Natural Gas will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0456% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Northwest Natural trading at USD 46.56, that is roughly USD 0.0212 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Northwest Natural's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Northwest Natural Gas options at the current volatility level of 0.73%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Northwest Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Northwest Natural's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Northwest Natural's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Northwest Natural stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Northwest Natural's open interest, investors have to compare it to Northwest Natural's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Northwest Natural is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Northwest. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Northwest Natural Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Northwest price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Northwest using various technical indicators. When you analyze Northwest charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Northwest Natural Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Northwest Natural's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1994-03-31 | Previous Quarter 102.6 M | Current Value 35.8 M | Quarterly Volatility 49.5 M |
Northwest Natural Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Northwest Natural Gas on the next trading day is expected to be 46.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43, mean absolute percentage error of 0.32, and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.27.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Northwest Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Northwest Natural's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Northwest Natural Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Northwest Natural | Northwest Natural Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Northwest Natural Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Northwest Natural's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Northwest Natural's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 45.90 and 47.87, respectively. We have considered Northwest Natural's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Northwest Natural stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Northwest Natural stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.986 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4306 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0092 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 26.268 |
Predictive Modules for Northwest Natural
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Northwest Natural Gas. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Northwest Natural's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Northwest Natural After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Northwest Natural at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Northwest Natural or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Northwest Natural, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Northwest Natural Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Northwest Natural's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Northwest Natural's historical news coverage. Northwest Natural's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 45.57 and 47.55, respectively. We have considered Northwest Natural's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Northwest Natural is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Northwest Natural Gas is based on 3 months time horizon.
Northwest Natural Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Northwest Natural is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Northwest Natural backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Northwest Natural, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 0.98 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 7 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
46.56 | 46.56 | 0.00 |
|
Northwest Natural Hype Timeline
On the 2nd of February Northwest Natural Gas is traded for 46.56. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. Northwest is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on Northwest Natural is about 207.63%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 46.57. About 83.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.36. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Northwest Natural Gas has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.48. The entity last dividend was issued on the 30th of January 2026. The firm had 3:2 split on the 9th of September 1996. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Northwest Natural to cross-verify your projections.Northwest Natural Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Northwest Natural's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Northwest Natural's future price movements. Getting to know how Northwest Natural's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Northwest Natural may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ELPC | Companhia Paranaense de | 0.19 | 9 per month | 2.87 | 0.07 | 4.74 | (4.17) | 13.36 | |
| CTRI | Centuri Holdings | (0.30) | 7 per month | 1.55 | 0.16 | 4.16 | (2.96) | 16.66 | |
| HTO | H2O America | 0.85 | 10 per month | 1.65 | 0.01 | 2.40 | (2.76) | 6.21 | |
| HE | Hawaiian Electric Industries | 1.11 | 9 per month | 2.04 | 0.14 | 4.47 | (3.47) | 12.14 | |
| SPH | Suburban Propane Partners | (0.43) | 9 per month | 1.26 | 0.07 | 1.78 | (2.51) | 5.44 | |
| EDN | Empresa Distribuidora y | 1.63 | 5 per month | 3.23 | 0.06 | 8.93 | (5.43) | 19.85 | |
| CEPU | Central Puerto SA | 1.08 | 8 per month | 2.23 | 0.11 | 6.93 | (4.23) | 14.79 | |
| CWT | California Water Service | 0.79 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.22 | (2.85) | 7.55 | |
| CPK | Chesapeake Utilities | (0.33) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 1.99 | (2.41) | 5.00 | |
| AWR | American States Water | 0.13 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.53 | (1.87) | 5.99 |
Other Forecasting Options for Northwest Natural
For every potential investor in Northwest, whether a beginner or expert, Northwest Natural's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Northwest Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Northwest. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Northwest Natural's price trends.Northwest Natural Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Northwest Natural stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Northwest Natural could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Northwest Natural by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Northwest Natural Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Northwest Natural stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Northwest Natural shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Northwest Natural stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Northwest Natural Gas entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Northwest Natural Risk Indicators
The analysis of Northwest Natural's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Northwest Natural's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting northwest stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7958 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.21 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.03 | |||
| Variance | 1.07 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.77 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.46 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.74) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Northwest Natural
The number of cover stories for Northwest Natural depends on current market conditions and Northwest Natural's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Northwest Natural is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Northwest Natural's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Northwest Natural Short Properties
Northwest Natural's future price predictability will typically decrease when Northwest Natural's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Northwest Natural Gas often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Northwest Natural's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Northwest Natural's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 38.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 38.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Northwest Natural to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.
Will Gas Utilities sector continue expanding? Could Northwest diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Northwest Natural. Anticipated expansion of Northwest directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Northwest Natural data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.29 | Dividend Share 1.96 | Earnings Share 2.48 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.203 |
Investors evaluate Northwest Natural Gas using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Northwest Natural's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Northwest Natural's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Northwest Natural's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Northwest Natural should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Northwest Natural's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.