Origin Bancorp Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 38.44
| OBNKDelisted Stock | USD 28.61 0.95 3.21% |
Origin |
Origin Bancorp Target Price Odds to finish below 38.44
The tendency of Origin Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 38.44 after 90 days |
| 28.61 | 90 days | 38.44 | under 95 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Origin Bancorp to stay under $ 38.44 after 90 days from now is under 95 (This Origin Bancorp probability density function shows the probability of Origin Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Origin Bancorp price to stay between its current price of $ 28.61 and $ 38.44 at the end of the 90-day period is about 78.7 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Origin Bancorp has a beta of -0.15. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Origin Bancorp are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Origin Bancorp is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Origin Bancorp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Origin Bancorp Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Origin Bancorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Origin Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Origin Bancorp Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Origin Bancorp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Origin Bancorp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Origin Bancorp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Origin Bancorp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.43 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.15 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.77 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.23 |
Origin Bancorp Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Origin Bancorp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Origin Bancorp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Origin Bancorp is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| Origin Bancorp has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years |
Origin Bancorp Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Origin Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Origin Bancorp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Origin Bancorp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 23.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2 B |
Origin Bancorp Technical Analysis
Origin Bancorp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Origin Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Origin Bancorp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Origin Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Origin Bancorp Predictive Forecast Models
Origin Bancorp's time-series forecasting models is one of many Origin Bancorp's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Origin Bancorp's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Origin Bancorp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Origin Bancorp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Origin Bancorp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Origin Bancorp is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| Origin Bancorp has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years |
Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors. You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.
Other Consideration for investing in Origin Stock
If you are still planning to invest in Origin Bancorp check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Origin Bancorp's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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