Long Term Government Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 14.18
| PFGCX Fund | USD 14.30 0.04 0.28% |
Long-term |
Long-term Target Price Odds to finish over 14.18
The tendency of Long-term Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 14.18 in 90 days |
| 14.30 | 90 days | 14.18 | about 83.6 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Long-term to stay above $ 14.18 in 90 days from now is about 83.6 (This Long Term Government Fund probability density function shows the probability of Long-term Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Long Term Government price to stay between $ 14.18 and its current price of $14.3 at the end of the 90-day period is about 7.26 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Long Term Government Fund has a beta of -0.2 indicating as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Long-term are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Long Term Government Fund is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Long Term Government Fund has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Long-term Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Long-term
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Long Term Government. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Long-term's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Long-term Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Long-term is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Long-term's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Long Term Government Fund, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Long-term within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.2 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.46 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.26 |
Long-term Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Long-term for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Long Term Government can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Long Term Government generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Long Term Government generated five year return of -6.0% | |
| This fund maintains about 7.64% of its assets in cash |
Long-term Technical Analysis
Long-term's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Long-term Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Long Term Government Fund. In general, you should focus on analyzing Long-term Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Long-term Predictive Forecast Models
Long-term's time-series forecasting models is one of many Long-term's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Long-term's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Long Term Government
Checking the ongoing alerts about Long-term for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Long Term Government help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Long Term Government generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Long Term Government generated five year return of -6.0% | |
| This fund maintains about 7.64% of its assets in cash |
Other Information on Investing in Long-term Mutual Fund
Long-term financial ratios help investors to determine whether Long-term Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Long-term with respect to the benefits of owning Long-term security.
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