Long-term Mutual Fund Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average

PFGCX Fund  USD 14.30  0.04  0.28%   
The 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Long Term Government Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 14.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.11. Long-term Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
An 8-period moving average forecast model for Long-term is based on an artificially constructed time series of Long-term daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Long-term 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 28th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Long Term Government Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 14.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.11.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Long-term Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Long-term's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Long-term Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Long-term Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Long-term's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Long-term's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.36 and 14.91, respectively. We have considered Long-term's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
14.30
14.14
Expected Value
14.91
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Long-term mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Long-term mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria99.9828
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0914
MADMean absolute deviation0.1529
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0106
SAESum of the absolute errors8.1062
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Long Term Government Fund 8-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Long-term

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Long Term Government. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Long-term's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
13.5214.3015.08
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
13.6214.4015.18
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
13.8914.1514.40
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Long-term

For every potential investor in Long-term, whether a beginner or expert, Long-term's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Long-term Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Long-term. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Long-term's price trends.

Long-term Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Long-term mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Long-term could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Long-term by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Long Term Government Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Long-term's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Long-term's current price.

Long-term Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Long-term mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Long-term shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Long-term mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Long Term Government Fund entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Long-term Risk Indicators

The analysis of Long-term's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Long-term's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting long-term mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Long-term Mutual Fund

Long-term financial ratios help investors to determine whether Long-term Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Long-term with respect to the benefits of owning Long-term security.
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