AerCap Holdings (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 93.6
| R1D Stock | EUR 93.60 0.14 0.15% |
AerCap |
AerCap Holdings Target Price Odds to finish below 93.6
The tendency of AerCap Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move below current price in 90 days |
| 93.60 | 90 days | 93.60 | about 97.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AerCap Holdings to move below current price in 90 days from now is about 97.0 (This AerCap Holdings NV probability density function shows the probability of AerCap Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon AerCap Holdings has a beta of 0.0798 indicating as returns on the market go up, AerCap Holdings average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding AerCap Holdings NV will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally AerCap Holdings NV has an alpha of 0.114, implying that it can generate a 0.11 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). AerCap Holdings Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for AerCap Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AerCap Holdings NV. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.AerCap Holdings Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AerCap Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AerCap Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AerCap Holdings NV, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AerCap Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.11 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.08 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.39 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
AerCap Holdings Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of AerCap Holdings for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for AerCap Holdings NV can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| AerCap Holdings NV has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
AerCap Holdings Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of AerCap Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential AerCap Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AerCap Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 245.4 M |
AerCap Holdings Technical Analysis
AerCap Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AerCap Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AerCap Holdings NV. In general, you should focus on analyzing AerCap Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
AerCap Holdings Predictive Forecast Models
AerCap Holdings' time-series forecasting models is one of many AerCap Holdings' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary AerCap Holdings' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about AerCap Holdings NV
Checking the ongoing alerts about AerCap Holdings for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for AerCap Holdings NV help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| AerCap Holdings NV has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in AerCap Stock
When determining whether AerCap Holdings NV is a strong investment it is important to analyze AerCap Holdings' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact AerCap Holdings' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding AerCap Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out AerCap Holdings Backtesting, AerCap Holdings Valuation, AerCap Holdings Correlation, AerCap Holdings Hype Analysis, AerCap Holdings Volatility, AerCap Holdings History as well as AerCap Holdings Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.