Real Good Food Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.39
| RGF Stock | USD 0.26 0.01 3.70% |
Real |
Real Good Target Price Odds to finish below 0.39
The tendency of Real Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 0.39 after 90 days |
| 0.26 | 90 days | 0.39 | about 74.04 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Real Good to stay under $ 0.39 after 90 days from now is about 74.04 (This Real Good Food probability density function shows the probability of Real Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Real Good Food price to stay between its current price of $ 0.26 and $ 0.39 at the end of the 90-day period is about 66.85 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Real Good has a beta of 0.67 indicating as returns on the market go up, Real Good average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Real Good Food will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Real Good Food has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Real Good Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Real Good
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Real Good Food. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Real Good Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Real Good is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Real Good's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Real Good Food, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Real Good within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.59 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.67 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.06 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Real Good Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Real Good for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Real Good Food can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Real Good Food generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Real Good Food has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Real Good Food has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Real Good Food has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 156.38 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (15.18 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 15.7 M. | |
| Real Good Food has about 10.34 M in cash with (36.63 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.68, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Real Good Food has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: The Real Good Food Company Receives Anticipated Additional Delinquency Notice from Nasdaq |
Real Good Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Real Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Real Good's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Real Good's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 6.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5.3 M |
Real Good Technical Analysis
Real Good's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Real Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Real Good Food. In general, you should focus on analyzing Real Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Real Good Predictive Forecast Models
Real Good's time-series forecasting models is one of many Real Good's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Real Good's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Real Good Food
Checking the ongoing alerts about Real Good for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Real Good Food help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Real Good Food generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Real Good Food has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Real Good Food has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Real Good Food has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 156.38 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (15.18 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 15.7 M. | |
| Real Good Food has about 10.34 M in cash with (36.63 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.68, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Real Good Food has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: The Real Good Food Company Receives Anticipated Additional Delinquency Notice from Nasdaq |
Check out Real Good Backtesting, Real Good Valuation, Real Good Correlation, Real Good Hype Analysis, Real Good Volatility, Real Good History as well as Real Good Performance. You can also try the Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..
Is Packaged Foods & Meats space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Real Good. If investors know Real will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Real Good listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (2.06) | Revenue Per Share 21.335 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.48 | Return On Assets (0.18) | Return On Equity (31.64) |
The market value of Real Good Food is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Real that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Real Good's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Real Good's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Real Good's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Real Good's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Real Good's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Real Good is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Real Good's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.