Santech Holdings Limited Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.38
| STEC Stock | 1.04 0.03 2.80% |
Santech |
Santech Holdings Target Price Odds to finish below 0.38
The tendency of Santech Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 0.38 or more in 90 days |
| 1.04 | 90 days | 0.38 | about 17.46 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Santech Holdings to drop to 0.38 or more in 90 days from now is about 17.46 (This Santech Holdings Limited probability density function shows the probability of Santech Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Santech Holdings price to stay between 0.38 and its current price of 1.04 at the end of the 90-day period is about 51.65 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Santech Holdings Limited has a beta of -12.08. This usually implies as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Santech Holdings Limited are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Santech Holdings is expected to outperform its benchmark. In addition to that Santech Holdings Limited has an alpha of 9.4611, implying that it can generate a 9.46 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Santech Holdings Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Santech Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Santech Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Santech Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Santech Holdings Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Santech Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Santech Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Santech Holdings Limited, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Santech Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 9.46 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -12.08 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.46 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.10 |
Santech Holdings Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Santech Holdings for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Santech Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Santech Holdings is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Santech Holdings has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Santech Holdings appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Santech Holdings Limited was previously known as Hywin Holdings and was traded on NASDAQ Exchange under the symbol HYW. | |
| Net Loss for the year was (98.8 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Santech Holdings Limited currently holds about 116.28 M in cash with (63.46 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.47, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Santech Holdings has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings |
Santech Holdings Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Santech Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Santech Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Santech Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 56 M | |
| Short Term Investments | 28.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 897.8 M |
Santech Holdings Technical Analysis
Santech Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Santech Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Santech Holdings Limited. In general, you should focus on analyzing Santech Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Santech Holdings Predictive Forecast Models
Santech Holdings' time-series forecasting models is one of many Santech Holdings' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Santech Holdings' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Santech Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about Santech Holdings for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Santech Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Santech Holdings is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Santech Holdings has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Santech Holdings appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Santech Holdings Limited was previously known as Hywin Holdings and was traded on NASDAQ Exchange under the symbol HYW. | |
| Net Loss for the year was (98.8 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Santech Holdings Limited currently holds about 116.28 M in cash with (63.46 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.47, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Santech Holdings has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings |
Check out Santech Holdings Backtesting, Santech Holdings Valuation, Santech Holdings Correlation, Santech Holdings Hype Analysis, Santech Holdings Volatility, Santech Holdings History as well as Santech Holdings Performance. You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Is Trading space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Santech Holdings. If investors know Santech will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Santech Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Santech Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Santech that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Santech Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Santech Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Santech Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Santech Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Santech Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Santech Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Santech Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.