Trivago Nv Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1.66
| TRVG Stock | USD 2.18 0.21 10.66% |
Trivago |
Trivago NV Target Price Odds to finish below 1.66
The tendency of Trivago Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 1.66 or more in 90 days |
| 2.18 | 90 days | 1.66 | about 20.1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Trivago NV to drop to $ 1.66 or more in 90 days from now is about 20.1 (This Trivago NV probability density function shows the probability of Trivago Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Trivago NV price to stay between $ 1.66 and its current price of $2.18 at the end of the 90-day period is about 79.74 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Trivago NV has a beta of -0.037. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Trivago NV are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Trivago NV is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Trivago NV has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Trivago NV Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Trivago NV
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Trivago NV. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Trivago NV's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Trivago NV Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Trivago NV is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Trivago NV's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Trivago NV, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Trivago NV within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.12 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
Trivago NV Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Trivago NV for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Trivago NV can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Trivago NV has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 485.03 M. Net Loss for the year was (164.48 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 522.31 M. | |
| About 33.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: trivago NV Q3 2024 Earnings Call Highlights Navigating Market Challenges with Strategic ... |
Trivago NV Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Trivago Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Trivago NV's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Trivago NV's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 69 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 127.1 M |
Trivago NV Technical Analysis
Trivago NV's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Trivago Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Trivago NV. In general, you should focus on analyzing Trivago Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Trivago NV Predictive Forecast Models
Trivago NV's time-series forecasting models is one of many Trivago NV's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Trivago NV's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Trivago NV
Checking the ongoing alerts about Trivago NV for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Trivago NV help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Trivago NV has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 485.03 M. Net Loss for the year was (164.48 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 522.31 M. | |
| About 33.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: trivago NV Q3 2024 Earnings Call Highlights Navigating Market Challenges with Strategic ... |
Check out Trivago NV Backtesting, Trivago NV Valuation, Trivago NV Correlation, Trivago NV Hype Analysis, Trivago NV Volatility, Trivago NV History as well as Trivago NV Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Trivago Stock please use our How to Invest in Trivago NV guide.You can also try the Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Is Interactive Media & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Trivago NV. If investors know Trivago will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Trivago NV listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.68) | Earnings Share (0.37) | Revenue Per Share 6.56 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.07) | Return On Assets (0.01) |
The market value of Trivago NV is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Trivago that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Trivago NV's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Trivago NV's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Trivago NV's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Trivago NV's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Trivago NV's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Trivago NV is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Trivago NV's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.