Tri County Financial Group Stock Probability of Future OTC Stock Price Finishing Under 39.15

TYFG Stock  USD 43.90  0.15  0.34%   
Tri County's future price is the expected price of Tri County instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Tri County Financial Group performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Tri County Backtesting, Tri County Valuation, Tri County Correlation, Tri County Hype Analysis, Tri County Volatility, Tri County History as well as Tri County Performance.
  
Please specify Tri County's target price for which you would like Tri County odds to be computed.

Tri County Target Price Odds to finish below 39.15

The tendency of Tri OTC Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 39.15  or more in 90 days
 43.90 90 days 39.15 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Tri County to drop to $ 39.15  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Tri County Financial Group probability density function shows the probability of Tri OTC Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Tri County Financial price to stay between $ 39.15  and its current price of $43.9 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 97.0 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Tri County Financial Group has a beta of -0.2. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Tri County are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Tri County Financial Group is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Tri County Financial Group has an alpha of 0.1103, implying that it can generate a 0.11 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Tri County Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Tri County

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tri County Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
42.9143.9044.89
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
35.3836.3748.29
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
43.2044.1945.19
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
42.3043.3844.46
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Tri County. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Tri County's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Tri County's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Tri County Financial.

Tri County Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Tri County is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Tri County's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Tri County Financial Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Tri County within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.11
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.2
σ
Overall volatility
0.71
Ir
Information ratio -0.03

Tri County Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Tri OTC Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Tri County's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Tri County's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding2.5 M
Dividends Paid1.9 M
Forward Annual Dividend Rate0.8
Shares Float2.2 M

Tri County Technical Analysis

Tri County's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Tri OTC Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Tri County Financial Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Tri OTC Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Tri County Predictive Forecast Models

Tri County's time-series forecasting models is one of many Tri County's otc stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Tri County's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the otc stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Tri County in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Tri County's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Tri County options trading.

Other Information on Investing in Tri OTC Stock

Tri County financial ratios help investors to determine whether Tri OTC Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Tri with respect to the benefits of owning Tri County security.