Ageagle Aerial Systems Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 5.47
| UAVS Stock | USD 5.97 2.48 71.06% |
Ageagle |
Ageagle Aerial Target Price Odds to finish below 5.47
The tendency of Ageagle Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 5.47 or more in 90 days |
| 5.97 | 90 days | 5.47 | about 34.39 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ageagle Aerial to drop to $ 5.47 or more in 90 days from now is about 34.39 (This Ageagle Aerial Systems probability density function shows the probability of Ageagle Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ageagle Aerial Systems price to stay between $ 5.47 and its current price of $5.97 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.96 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Ageagle Aerial has a beta of 0.3. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Ageagle Aerial average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Ageagle Aerial Systems will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Ageagle Aerial Systems has an alpha of 0.5398, implying that it can generate a 0.54 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Ageagle Aerial Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Ageagle Aerial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ageagle Aerial Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ageagle Aerial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ageagle Aerial Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ageagle Aerial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ageagle Aerial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ageagle Aerial Systems, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ageagle Aerial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.54 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.30 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 6.32 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.02 |
Ageagle Aerial Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ageagle Aerial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ageagle Aerial Systems can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Ageagle Aerial is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Ageagle Aerial appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Ageagle Aerial has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 13.74 M. Net Loss for the year was (42.42 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 8.22 M. | |
| Ageagle Aerial Systems currently holds about 5.3 M in cash with (10.96 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.06. | |
| Ageagle Aerial has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: AgEagle Aerial Posts Narrower YY Loss in Q3, Mixed Performance |
Ageagle Aerial Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ageagle Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ageagle Aerial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ageagle Aerial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 819 K |
Ageagle Aerial Technical Analysis
Ageagle Aerial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ageagle Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ageagle Aerial Systems. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ageagle Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Ageagle Aerial Predictive Forecast Models
Ageagle Aerial's time-series forecasting models is one of many Ageagle Aerial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ageagle Aerial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Ageagle Aerial Systems
Checking the ongoing alerts about Ageagle Aerial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ageagle Aerial Systems help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Ageagle Aerial is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Ageagle Aerial appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Ageagle Aerial has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 13.74 M. Net Loss for the year was (42.42 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 8.22 M. | |
| Ageagle Aerial Systems currently holds about 5.3 M in cash with (10.96 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.06. | |
| Ageagle Aerial has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: AgEagle Aerial Posts Narrower YY Loss in Q3, Mixed Performance |
Additional Tools for Ageagle Stock Analysis
When running Ageagle Aerial's price analysis, check to measure Ageagle Aerial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ageagle Aerial is operating at the current time. Most of Ageagle Aerial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ageagle Aerial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ageagle Aerial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ageagle Aerial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.