Ageagle Aerial Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| UAVS Stock | USD 1.10 0.05 4.76% |
Ageagle Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Ageagle Aerial's share price is approaching 44. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Ageagle Aerial, making its price go up or down. Momentum 44
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.40) |
Using Ageagle Aerial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ageagle Aerial Systems from the perspective of Ageagle Aerial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Ageagle Relative Strength Index
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Ageagle Aerial Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 1.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.17.Ageagle Aerial Systems Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Ageagle Aerial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Ageagle. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ageagle can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ageagle Aerial Systems. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Ageagle Aerial's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Ageagle Aerial.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Ageagle Aerial Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 1.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.17. Ageagle Aerial after-hype prediction price | USD 1.09 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ageagle Aerial to cross-verify your projections. Ageagle Aerial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ageagle price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ageagle using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ageagle charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ageagle Aerial Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Ageagle Aerial Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 1.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.17.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ageagle Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ageagle Aerial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ageagle Aerial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ageagle Aerial | Ageagle Aerial Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Ageagle Aerial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ageagle Aerial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ageagle Aerial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 12.73, respectively. We have considered Ageagle Aerial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ageagle Aerial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ageagle Aerial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.0672 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1667 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1393 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.1711 |
Predictive Modules for Ageagle Aerial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ageagle Aerial Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ageagle Aerial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ageagle Aerial After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ageagle Aerial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ageagle Aerial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ageagle Aerial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ageagle Aerial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ageagle Aerial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ageagle Aerial's historical news coverage. Ageagle Aerial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.05 and 12.58, respectively. We have considered Ageagle Aerial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ageagle Aerial is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ageagle Aerial Systems is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ageagle Aerial Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ageagle Aerial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ageagle Aerial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ageagle Aerial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 11.49 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 10 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.10 | 1.09 | 0.93 |
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Ageagle Aerial Hype Timeline
Ageagle Aerial Systems is at this time traded for 1.10. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Ageagle is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 1.09 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is forecasted to be 0.93%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.19%. The volatility of related hype on Ageagle Aerial is about 32828.57%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.11. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 13.39 M. Net Loss for the year was (35.04 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 6.38 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ageagle Aerial to cross-verify your projections.Ageagle Aerial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ageagle Aerial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ageagle Aerial's future price movements. Getting to know how Ageagle Aerial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ageagle Aerial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| QMCO | Quantum | (0.17) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 7.63 | (7.38) | 26.35 | |
| HOLO | MicroCloud Hologram | 0.08 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 5.57 | (7.62) | 15.30 | |
| YIBO | Planet Image International | 0.02 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 7.48 | (9.09) | 54.49 | |
| ALOT | AstroNova | 0.39 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 4.76 | (3.31) | 21.34 | |
| CMBM | Cambium Networks Corp | (0.12) | 5 per month | 7.42 | 0.11 | 27.12 | (13.22) | 407.58 | |
| UPLD | Upland Software | 0.02 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 5.23 | (5.42) | 11.78 | |
| YXT | YXTCOM GROUP HOLDING | (0.02) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 11.11 | (10.00) | 41.05 | |
| HKIT | Hitek Global Ordinary | 0.09 | 5 per month | 9.78 | 0.04 | 12.23 | (15.12) | 122.99 | |
| FKWL | Franklin Wireless Corp | (0.04) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 3.56 | (3.75) | 9.54 | |
| MCRP | Micropolis Holding | 0.10 | 9 per month | 8.40 | 0.09 | 16.55 | (14.29) | 67.35 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ageagle Aerial
For every potential investor in Ageagle, whether a beginner or expert, Ageagle Aerial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ageagle Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ageagle. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ageagle Aerial's price trends.Ageagle Aerial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ageagle Aerial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ageagle Aerial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ageagle Aerial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ageagle Aerial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ageagle Aerial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ageagle Aerial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ageagle Aerial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ageagle Aerial Systems entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ageagle Aerial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ageagle Aerial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ageagle Aerial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ageagle stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 6.9 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 11.13 | |||
| Variance | 123.84 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ageagle Aerial
The number of cover stories for Ageagle Aerial depends on current market conditions and Ageagle Aerial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ageagle Aerial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ageagle Aerial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ageagle Aerial Short Properties
Ageagle Aerial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ageagle Aerial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ageagle Aerial Systems often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ageagle Aerial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ageagle Aerial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.6 M |
Additional Tools for Ageagle Stock Analysis
When running Ageagle Aerial's price analysis, check to measure Ageagle Aerial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ageagle Aerial is operating at the current time. Most of Ageagle Aerial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ageagle Aerial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ageagle Aerial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ageagle Aerial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.