Ardagh Packaging Finance Chance of Future Bond Price Finishing Over 59.0
| 03969AAR1 | 76.00 17.03 28.88% |
Ardagh |
Ardagh Target Price Odds to finish over 59.0
The tendency of Ardagh Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 59.00 in 90 days |
| 76.00 | 90 days | 59.00 | about 75.63 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ardagh to stay above 59.00 in 90 days from now is about 75.63 (This Ardagh Packaging Finance probability density function shows the probability of Ardagh Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ardagh Packaging Finance price to stay between 59.00 and its current price of 76.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 70.42 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Ardagh Packaging Finance has a beta of -1.47. This usually implies as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Ardagh Packaging Finance are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Ardagh is expected to outperform its benchmark. Additionally Ardagh Packaging Finance has an alpha of 0.7397, implying that it can generate a 0.74 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Ardagh Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Ardagh
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ardagh Packaging Finance. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ardagh Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ardagh is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ardagh's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ardagh Packaging Finance, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ardagh within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.74 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -1.47 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 7.33 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.08 |
Ardagh Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ardagh for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ardagh Packaging Finance can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Ardagh is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Ardagh appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues |
Ardagh Technical Analysis
Ardagh's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ardagh Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ardagh Packaging Finance. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ardagh Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Ardagh Predictive Forecast Models
Ardagh's time-series forecasting models is one of many Ardagh's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ardagh's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Ardagh Packaging Finance
Checking the ongoing alerts about Ardagh for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ardagh Packaging Finance help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Ardagh is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Ardagh appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues |
Other Information on Investing in Ardagh Bond
Ardagh financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ardagh Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ardagh with respect to the benefits of owning Ardagh security.