Vale Sa Adr Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 5.22
| VALE Stock | USD 9.96 0.07 0.70% |
Vale |
Vale SA Target Price Odds to finish below 5.22
The tendency of Vale Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 5.22 or more in 90 days |
| 9.96 | 90 days | 5.22 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Vale SA to drop to $ 5.22 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Vale SA ADR probability density function shows the probability of Vale Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Vale SA ADR price to stay between $ 5.22 and its current price of $9.96 at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.18 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Vale SA has a beta of 0.46. This entails as returns on the market go up, Vale SA average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Vale SA ADR will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Vale SA ADR has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Vale SA Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Vale SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vale SA ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Vale SA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Vale SA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Vale SA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Vale SA ADR, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Vale SA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.13 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.46 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.51 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Vale SA Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Vale SA for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Vale SA ADR can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Vale SA ADR generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Latest headline from insidermonkey.com: Is Vale S.A. the Best Nickel Stock to Invest in |
Vale SA Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Vale Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Vale SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vale SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 4.4 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.3 B |
Vale SA Technical Analysis
Vale SA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Vale Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Vale SA ADR. In general, you should focus on analyzing Vale Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Vale SA Predictive Forecast Models
Vale SA's time-series forecasting models is one of many Vale SA's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Vale SA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Vale SA ADR
Checking the ongoing alerts about Vale SA for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Vale SA ADR help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Vale SA ADR generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Latest headline from insidermonkey.com: Is Vale S.A. the Best Nickel Stock to Invest in |
Check out Vale SA Backtesting, Vale SA Valuation, Vale SA Correlation, Vale SA Hype Analysis, Vale SA Volatility, Vale SA History as well as Vale SA Performance. You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.
Is Metals & Mining space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Vale SA. If investors know Vale will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Vale SA listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.02) | Dividend Share 1.78 | Earnings Share 2.16 | Revenue Per Share 49.29 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.02 |
The market value of Vale SA ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vale that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vale SA's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vale SA's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Vale SA's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vale SA's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vale SA's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Vale SA is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vale SA's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.