Vale SA Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| VALE Stock | USD 16.30 0.02 0.12% |
Vale Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Vale SA stock prices and determine the direction of Vale SA ADR's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Vale SA's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength momentum indicator of Vale SA's share price is below 20 . This entails that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.091 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.5333 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.1357 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.2172 | Wall Street Target Price 15.68 |
Using Vale SA hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Vale SA ADR from the perspective of Vale SA response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Vale SA using Vale SA's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Vale using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Vale SA's stock price.
Vale SA Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Vale SA's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Vale. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Vale SA stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 11.2249 | Short Percent 0.0218 | Short Ratio 3.09 | Shares Short Prior Month 76.5 M | 50 Day MA 13.9332 |
Vale Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Vale SA ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 16.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.50.Vale SA ADR Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Vale SA's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Vale. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Vale can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Vale SA ADR. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Vale SA's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Vale SA.
Vale SA Implied Volatility | 0.53 |
Vale SA's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Vale SA ADR stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Vale SA's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Vale SA stock will not fluctuate a lot when Vale SA's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Vale SA ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 16.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.50.
Vale SA after-hype prediction price | USD 16.25 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vale SA to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Vale contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Vale SA ADR will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0331% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Vale SA trading at USD 16.3, that is roughly USD 0.005399 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Vale SA's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Vale SA ADR options at the current volatility level of 0.53%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Vale Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Vale SA's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Vale SA's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Vale SA stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Vale SA's open interest, investors have to compare it to Vale SA's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Vale SA is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Vale. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Vale SA Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Vale price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Vale using various technical indicators. When you analyze Vale charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Vale SA Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 8th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Vale SA ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 16.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.50.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Vale Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Vale SA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Vale SA Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Vale SA | Vale SA Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Vale SA Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Vale SA's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Vale SA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.95 and 18.65, respectively. We have considered Vale SA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Vale SA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Vale SA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.9649 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0757 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2377 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0169 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.5 |
Predictive Modules for Vale SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vale SA ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Vale SA After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Vale SA at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Vale SA or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Vale SA, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Vale SA Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Vale SA's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Vale SA's historical news coverage. Vale SA's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.90 and 18.60, respectively. We have considered Vale SA's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Vale SA is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Vale SA ADR is based on 3 months time horizon.
Vale SA Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Vale SA is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Vale SA backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Vale SA, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.57 | 2.35 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 11 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
16.30 | 16.25 | 0.31 |
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Vale SA Hype Timeline
Vale SA ADR is at this time traded for 16.30. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.09. Vale is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 16.25. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.31%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.57%. The volatility of related hype on Vale SA is about 1487.34%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.39. About 20.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.69. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Vale SA ADR last dividend was issued on the 12th of December 2025. The entity had 2:1 split on the 13th of September 2007. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vale SA to cross-verify your projections.Vale SA Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Vale SA's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Vale SA's future price movements. Getting to know how Vale SA's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Vale SA may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| VMC | Vulcan Materials | 1.90 | 10 per month | 1.64 | 0.06 | 2.40 | (2.58) | 8.21 | |
| WPM | Wheaton Precious Metals | 0.11 | 10 per month | 3.25 | 0.15 | 4.16 | (4.28) | 18.32 | |
| CTVA | Corteva | 0.34 | 10 per month | 1.01 | 0.12 | 2.24 | (1.41) | 7.27 | |
| BHP | BHP Group Limited | (1.28) | 9 per month | 1.57 | 0.14 | 3.17 | (2.42) | 9.15 | |
| MLM | Martin Marietta Materials | (1.08) | 7 per month | 1.52 | 0.04 | 1.89 | (2.34) | 8.83 | |
| GFI | Gold Fields Ltd | 1.24 | 11 per month | 3.60 | 0.13 | 6.95 | (6.11) | 23.45 | |
| FNV | Franco Nevada | (3.16) | 10 per month | 2.48 | 0.11 | 3.43 | (3.33) | 15.02 | |
| AU | AngloGold Ashanti plc | 3.90 | 10 per month | 3.63 | 0.17 | 6.75 | (5.21) | 21.11 | |
| MT | ArcelorMittal SA ADR | (1.04) | 9 per month | 0.80 | 0.33 | 4.25 | (1.54) | 8.20 | |
| B | Barrick Mining | 0.65 | 10 per month | 3.06 | 0.15 | 4.37 | (4.58) | 20.22 |
Other Forecasting Options for Vale SA
For every potential investor in Vale, whether a beginner or expert, Vale SA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Vale Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Vale. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Vale SA's price trends.Vale SA Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Vale SA stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Vale SA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Vale SA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Vale SA Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Vale SA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Vale SA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Vale SA stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Vale SA ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 779046.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.0588 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 16.46 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 16.41 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.15) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.02 |
Vale SA Risk Indicators
The analysis of Vale SA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Vale SA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vale stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.65 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.75 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.31 | |||
| Variance | 5.35 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.94 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.05 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.94) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Vale SA
The number of cover stories for Vale SA depends on current market conditions and Vale SA's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Vale SA is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Vale SA's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Vale SA Short Properties
Vale SA's future price predictability will typically decrease when Vale SA's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Vale SA ADR often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Vale SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vale SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 4.3 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vale SA to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.
Will Metals & Mining sector continue expanding? Could Vale diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Vale SA. If investors know Vale will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Vale SA data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.091 | Dividend Share 1.25 | Earnings Share 1.29 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.07 |
The market value of Vale SA ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vale that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vale SA's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vale SA's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Vale SA's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vale SA's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vale SA's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Vale SA is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Meanwhile, Vale SA's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.