Vacasa Inc Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 3.35
| VCSA Stock | USD 2.98 0.07 2.41% |
Vacasa |
Vacasa Target Price Odds to finish over 3.35
The tendency of Vacasa Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 3.35 or more in 90 days |
| 2.98 | 90 days | 3.35 | about 26.35 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Vacasa to move over $ 3.35 or more in 90 days from now is about 26.35 (This Vacasa Inc probability density function shows the probability of Vacasa Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Vacasa Inc price to stay between its current price of $ 2.98 and $ 3.35 at the end of the 90-day period is about 28.52 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.61 . This entails as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Vacasa will likely underperform. Additionally Vacasa Inc has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Vacasa Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Vacasa
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vacasa Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vacasa's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Vacasa Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Vacasa is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Vacasa's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Vacasa Inc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Vacasa within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.25 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.61 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.49 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
Vacasa Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Vacasa for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Vacasa Inc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Vacasa Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Vacasa Inc has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Vacasa Inc has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| Vacasa Inc currently holds 25.87 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.03, which may suggest the company is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. Vacasa Inc has a current ratio of 0.86, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Vacasa's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 1.12 B. Net Loss for the year was (298.7 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 623.58 M. | |
| Vacasa Inc currently holds about 319.25 M in cash with (51.71 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.41. | |
| Roughly 71.0% of Vacasa outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from insidermonkey.com: Vacasa, Inc. Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript |
Vacasa Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Vacasa Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Vacasa's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vacasa's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 12.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 88 M |
Vacasa Technical Analysis
Vacasa's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Vacasa Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Vacasa Inc. In general, you should focus on analyzing Vacasa Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Vacasa Predictive Forecast Models
Vacasa's time-series forecasting models is one of many Vacasa's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Vacasa's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Vacasa Inc
Checking the ongoing alerts about Vacasa for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Vacasa Inc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Vacasa Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Vacasa Inc has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Vacasa Inc has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| Vacasa Inc currently holds 25.87 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.03, which may suggest the company is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. Vacasa Inc has a current ratio of 0.86, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Vacasa's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 1.12 B. Net Loss for the year was (298.7 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 623.58 M. | |
| Vacasa Inc currently holds about 319.25 M in cash with (51.71 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.41. | |
| Roughly 71.0% of Vacasa outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from insidermonkey.com: Vacasa, Inc. Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript |
Check out Vacasa Backtesting, Vacasa Valuation, Vacasa Correlation, Vacasa Hype Analysis, Vacasa Volatility, Vacasa History as well as Vacasa Performance. You can also try the Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Vacasa. If investors know Vacasa will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Vacasa listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.11) | Earnings Share (7.02) | Revenue Per Share 67.063 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.17) | Return On Assets (0.07) |
The market value of Vacasa Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vacasa that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vacasa's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vacasa's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Vacasa's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vacasa's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vacasa's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Vacasa is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vacasa's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.