Vital Farms Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 31.5
| VITL Stock | USD 32.27 1.83 6.01% |
Vital |
Vital Farms Target Price Odds to finish below 31.5
The tendency of Vital Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 31.50 or more in 90 days |
| 32.27 | 90 days | 31.50 | about 25.2 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Vital Farms to drop to $ 31.50 or more in 90 days from now is about 25.2 (This Vital Farms probability density function shows the probability of Vital Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Vital Farms price to stay between $ 31.50 and its current price of $32.27 at the end of the 90-day period is about 7.4 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.61 . This entails as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Vital Farms will likely underperform. Additionally Vital Farms has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Vital Farms Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Vital Farms
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vital Farms. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vital Farms' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Vital Farms Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Vital Farms is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Vital Farms' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Vital Farms, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Vital Farms within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.21 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.61 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.55 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
Vital Farms Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Vital Farms for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Vital Farms can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Vital Farms had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Vital Farms has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 89.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Are Options Traders Betting on a Big Move in Vital Farms Stock |
Vital Farms Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Vital Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Vital Farms' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vital Farms' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 41.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 116.8 M |
Vital Farms Technical Analysis
Vital Farms' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Vital Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Vital Farms. In general, you should focus on analyzing Vital Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Vital Farms Predictive Forecast Models
Vital Farms' time-series forecasting models is one of many Vital Farms' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Vital Farms' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Vital Farms
Checking the ongoing alerts about Vital Farms for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Vital Farms help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Vital Farms had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Vital Farms has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 89.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Are Options Traders Betting on a Big Move in Vital Farms Stock |
Check out Vital Farms Backtesting, Vital Farms Valuation, Vital Farms Correlation, Vital Farms Hype Analysis, Vital Farms Volatility, Vital Farms History as well as Vital Farms Performance. For more information on how to buy Vital Stock please use our How to buy in Vital Stock guide.You can also try the Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm.
Is Packaged Foods & Meats space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Vital Farms. If investors know Vital will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Vital Farms listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.6 | Earnings Share 1.12 | Revenue Per Share 13.619 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.313 | Return On Assets 0.1254 |
The market value of Vital Farms is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vital that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vital Farms' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vital Farms' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Vital Farms' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vital Farms' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vital Farms' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Vital Farms is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vital Farms' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.