Valero Energy (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 416.16
| VLOE34 Stock | BRL 416.22 6.22 1.52% |
Valero |
Valero Energy Target Price Odds to finish below 416.16
The tendency of Valero Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 416.16 or more in 90 days |
| 416.22 | 90 days | 416.16 | about 98.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Valero Energy to drop to R$ 416.16 or more in 90 days from now is about 98.0 (This Valero Energy probability density function shows the probability of Valero Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Valero Energy price to stay between R$ 416.16 and its current price of R$416.22 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Valero Energy has a beta of -0.45. This entails as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Valero Energy are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Valero Energy is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Valero Energy has an alpha of 0.151, implying that it can generate a 0.15 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Valero Energy Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Valero Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Valero Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Valero Energy Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Valero Energy is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Valero Energy's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Valero Energy, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Valero Energy within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.15 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.45 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 14.34 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
Valero Energy Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Valero Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Valero Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Valero Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 409.2 M |
Valero Energy Technical Analysis
Valero Energy's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Valero Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Valero Energy. In general, you should focus on analyzing Valero Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Valero Energy Predictive Forecast Models
Valero Energy's time-series forecasting models is one of many Valero Energy's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Valero Energy's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Valero Energy in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Valero Energy's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Valero Energy options trading.
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Valero Stock
When determining whether Valero Energy offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Valero Energy's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Valero Energy Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Valero Energy Stock:Check out Valero Energy Backtesting, Valero Energy Valuation, Valero Energy Correlation, Valero Energy Hype Analysis, Valero Energy Volatility, Valero Energy History as well as Valero Energy Performance. For information on how to trade Valero Stock refer to our How to Trade Valero Stock guide.You can also try the Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.