Xcel Brands Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.03
| XELB Stock | USD 0.71 0.03 4.41% |
Xcel |
Xcel Brands Target Price Odds to finish below 0.03
The tendency of Xcel Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 0.03 or more in 90 days |
| 0.71 | 90 days | 0.03 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Xcel Brands to drop to $ 0.03 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Xcel Brands probability density function shows the probability of Xcel Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Xcel Brands price to stay between $ 0.03 and its current price of $0.71 at the end of the 90-day period is about 22.26 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Xcel Brands has a beta of 0.13. This entails as returns on the market go up, Xcel Brands average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Xcel Brands will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Xcel Brands has an alpha of 0.01, implying that it can generate a 0.009955 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Xcel Brands Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Xcel Brands
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Xcel Brands. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Xcel Brands Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Xcel Brands is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Xcel Brands' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Xcel Brands, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Xcel Brands within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.13 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.04 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
Xcel Brands Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Xcel Brands for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Xcel Brands can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Xcel Brands generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Xcel Brands has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Xcel Brands has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 17.75 M. Net Loss for the year was (21.05 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 17.8 M. | |
| Xcel Brands currently holds about 10.87 M in cash with (6.54 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.55. | |
| Xcel Brands has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 41.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: XELB Stock Earnings Xcel Brands Beats EPS, Misses Revenue for Q4 2023 - MSN |
Xcel Brands Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Xcel Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Xcel Brands' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Xcel Brands' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 19.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3 M |
Xcel Brands Technical Analysis
Xcel Brands' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Xcel Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Xcel Brands. In general, you should focus on analyzing Xcel Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Xcel Brands Predictive Forecast Models
Xcel Brands' time-series forecasting models is one of many Xcel Brands' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Xcel Brands' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Xcel Brands
Checking the ongoing alerts about Xcel Brands for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Xcel Brands help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Xcel Brands generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Xcel Brands has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Xcel Brands has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 17.75 M. Net Loss for the year was (21.05 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 17.8 M. | |
| Xcel Brands currently holds about 10.87 M in cash with (6.54 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.55. | |
| Xcel Brands has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 41.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: XELB Stock Earnings Xcel Brands Beats EPS, Misses Revenue for Q4 2023 - MSN |
Check out Xcel Brands Backtesting, Xcel Brands Valuation, Xcel Brands Correlation, Xcel Brands Hype Analysis, Xcel Brands Volatility, Xcel Brands History as well as Xcel Brands Performance. For information on how to trade Xcel Stock refer to our How to Trade Xcel Stock guide.You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Is Specialty Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Xcel Brands. If investors know Xcel will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Xcel Brands listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.89) | Revenue Per Share 0.483 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.56) | Return On Assets (0.13) | Return On Equity (0.36) |
The market value of Xcel Brands is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Xcel that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Xcel Brands' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Xcel Brands' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Xcel Brands' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Xcel Brands' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Xcel Brands' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Xcel Brands is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Xcel Brands' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.