Mainstay Defined Term Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 17.96
| XMMDX Fund | USD 17.09 0.02 0.12% |
Mainstay |
Mainstay Defined Target Price Odds to finish over 17.96
The tendency of Mainstay Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 17.96 or more in 90 days |
| 17.09 | 90 days | 17.96 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mainstay Defined to move over $ 17.96 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Mainstay Defined Term probability density function shows the probability of Mainstay Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Mainstay Defined Term price to stay between its current price of $ 17.09 and $ 17.96 at the end of the 90-day period is about 23.75 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Mainstay Defined has a beta of 0.0546. This entails as returns on the market go up, Mainstay Defined average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Mainstay Defined Term will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Mainstay Defined Term has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Mainstay Defined Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Mainstay Defined
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mainstay Defined Term. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mainstay Defined's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Mainstay Defined Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mainstay Defined is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mainstay Defined's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mainstay Defined Term, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mainstay Defined within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.05 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.14 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.46 |
Mainstay Defined Technical Analysis
Mainstay Defined's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Mainstay Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Mainstay Defined Term. In general, you should focus on analyzing Mainstay Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Mainstay Defined Predictive Forecast Models
Mainstay Defined's time-series forecasting models is one of many Mainstay Defined's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Mainstay Defined's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Mainstay Defined in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Mainstay Defined's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Mainstay Defined options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Mainstay Mutual Fund
Mainstay Defined financial ratios help investors to determine whether Mainstay Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Mainstay with respect to the benefits of owning Mainstay Defined security.
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