Grupo Aval Stock Market Outlook

Stocks . USA . 
Stock . Grupo Aval
AVAL Stock  USD 4.55  0.03  0.66%   
Grupo Aval's sentiment score summarizes the balance between positive and negative signals in recent news and social media and is used here as a behavioral input rather than as a trading instruction. About 56% of recent sentiment around Grupo Aval has been slightly more constructive than defensive over the recent sample. Taken on its own, that leaves the current sentiment reading for Grupo Aval slightly above neutral at this time.
Investor Comfort Level
PanicConfidence
56 · Interested

Elasticity to Hype and News Sentiment

Grupo Aval news sentiment reading of 74% (positive) tracks how media and analyst commentary are framing the investment case. Whether that tone sustains depends on how the next batch of company disclosures compares with the current media narrative.
Given a 90-day horizon, with an above-average risk tolerance, the model output for Grupo Aval is 'Strong Sell'. The Grupo Aval buy-or-sell recommendation is derived from the selected investment horizon and risk tolerance parameters for Grupo Aval.
  

Run Grupo Aval Outlook Model

The Grupo Aval model signal complements the current analyst consensus on Grupo Aval. Macroaxis holds no financial interest in Grupo Aval or in any other asset this module covers.

How This Model Works

The recommendation output for Grupo Aval is a model-based view that converts the selected horizon and risk profile into a standardized reading of the current evidence.

  • Inputs - valuation signals, price behavior, volatility, liquidity, sentiment, and analyst coverage when available
  • Current setup - Three Months with a risk setting described as I am an educated risk taker
  • Limits - the model does not account for taxes, outside holdings, concentration constraints, or investor-specific mandates

Use the output as structured decision support and pair it with your own research, portfolio context, and any professional advice you rely on.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Update Outlook
SellBuy
Strong Sell

Market Performance

SoftDetails

Volatility

ElevatedDetails

Current Valuation

Above Model EstimateDetails

Odds Of Distress

MinimalDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Actively responds to the marketDetails

Investor Sentiment

InterestedDetails

Analyst Consensus

HoldDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

HealthyDetails

Financial Leverage

Not RatedDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Possible ManipulatorDetails
Grupo Aval's current outlook reflects a cautious setup, where recent market performance has undercut momentum, while risk metrics have not deteriorated further. The model's 'Strong Sell' signal reflects persistent headwinds that outweigh the offsetting factors in the model. Grupo Aval's risk profile over the selected period reflects Mean Deviation of 2.67, Semi Deviation of 3.0, and Standard Deviation of 3.74, which weigh on the current risk-reward outlook.
The model output for Grupo Aval integrates risk-adjusted performance, valuation signals, and the current expert consensus into a single quantitative reading. For additional context on this mid-cap stock in the Financial Services sector, review the full set of Grupo Aval reported fundamentals, including the relationship between the cash per share ttm and trailing beta. Grupo Aval has a price to earnings ttm of 3.11 X. Its market performance and bankruptcy risk for the current cycle warrant close attention.

Recent Events and Market Context

The events below reflect recent headlines associated with Grupo Aval. Not all items directly affect the outlook โ€” they are included to show the broader information environment that can shape sentiment and trading behavior.

Returns Distribution Density

This chart shows how Grupo Aval's daily returns have been spread out over time. It gives a quick sense of what outcomes are most likely for Grupo Aval.
Mean Return
0.02
Value At Risk
-5.27
Potential Upside
4.55
Standard Deviation
3.74
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Good risk management means knowing how likely big price swings are. The return distribution chart shows this clearly for Grupo Aval.

Top Institutional Investors

Institutions control about 1.17% of the share base. At mid-cap scale, institutional coverage and secondary-market liquidity are typically well established. Institutional activity around Grupo Aval shapes the liquidity and governance picture. Grupo Aval holder concentration should be checked against volatility trends to see how ownership affects price during stressed markets.
Shares
Sage Investment Counsel Llc2026-03-31
61 K
Connor Clark & Lunn Inv Mgmt Ltd2025-12-31
44.4 K
Inspire Advisors, Llc2025-12-31
41.5 K
Btg Pactual Asset Management Us, Llc2025-12-31
35.1 K
Smartharvest Portfolios, Llc2026-03-31
25.5 K
Cwm Advisors, Llc2025-12-31
24.2 K
Vise Technologies, Inc.2026-03-31
20 K
Natural Investments, Llc2026-03-31
18.2 K
Plan A Wealth Llc2025-12-31
16.4 K
Truffle Hound Capital, Llc2025-12-31
1.7 M
Renaissance Technologies Corp2025-12-31
844.9 K
For a mid-cap like Grupo Aval (5.37 billion), benchmark pressure and redemption cycles can limit how institutional weight turns into price support. Annual revenue is about 42.33 trillion. At this size, institutional entries and exits have a more visible impact on daily volume.
Backtest Grupo Aval

Key Drivers of Volatility and Market Exposure

Grupo Aval is exposed to both systematic and unsystematic risk. Systematic risk reflects broader stock market movements, while company or sector-specific developments represent nonmarket drivers. Diversification may reduce specific risk, but market exposure remains. Beta and standard deviation help quantify volatility. For Grupo Aval, recent data highlights a Downside Deviation of 3.13, a Mean Deviation of 2.67, and a Semi Deviation of 3.00.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones		0.01
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.74
σ
Overall volatility		3.73
Ir
Information ratio 0.0033
Grupo Aval shows measurable price movement over the selected period, with downside deviation near 3.13% and total standard deviation of 3.74%. These figures describe how widely returns have moved from their average. Grupo Aval has a beta of 1.7381, which indicates amplified sensitivity to broad market swings. The current Sharpe ratio of 0.0261 suggests moderate compensation for risk taken.

Fundamentals Vs Peers

Grupo Aval's fundamentals tested against peer averages expose where the stock leads, lags, or diverges from its group. Revenue growth, margin structure, and return on capital at Grupo Aval are tested against the same metrics at comparable stocks.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare Grupo Aval to competition
FundamentalsGrupo AvalPeer Average
Return On Equity TTM0.0939-0.31
Return On Asset TTM0.0094-0.14
Profit Margin TTM0.13-1.27
Current Valuation48.18 T16.62 billion
Shares Outstanding378.29 M571.82 million
Shares Owned By Institutions1.17 %39.21 %
Number Of Shares Shorted494.8 K4.71 million
Price To Earnings TTM3.11 X28.72 X
Price To Book TTM1.09 X9.51 X
Price To Sales TTM0.79 X11.42 X
Revenue TTM42.33 T9.43 billion
Gross Profit TTM13.44 T27.38 billion
EBITDA TTM3.86 T3.9 billion
Net Income TTM1.58 T570.98 million
Cash And Equivalents TTM17.33 B2.7 billion
Cash Per Share TTM15.55 X5.01 X
Total Debt TTM68.6 T5.32 billion
Debt To Equity TTM14.32 %48.70 %
Book Value Per Share TTM775.42 X1,931
Cash Flow From Operations TTM2.04 T971.22 million
Short Ratio TTM3.52 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share0.38 X3.12 X
Target Price4.0N/A
Trailing Beta0.39-0.15
Market Capitalization TTM5.37 B19.03 billion
Total Asset TTM348.56 T29.47 billion
Retained Earnings TTM9.24 T9.33 billion
Annual Yield0.0383N/A
Five Year Return6.04 %N/A
Net Asset348.56 TN/A
Note: Insider Trading [view details]

Market Momentum

RSI for Grupo Aval is at 51, in neutral range. Beta of 1.7381 amplifies broad market moves. Strength signals for Grupo Aval show whether demand and trading pressure are supporting or weakening the current setup. Grupo Aval timing discipline improves when momentum indicators are cross-checked with volume and earnings revision context.
Accumulation Distribution10972.86
Daily Balance Of Power0.25
Rate Of Daily Change1.01
Day Median Price4.53
Day Typical Price4.54
Price Action Indicator0.035
Period Momentum Indicator0.03

Current Target Price Consensus

Grupo Aval target price is determined by averaging all analyst projections into a single consensus figure. There is no straightforward metric for gauging analyst reliability beyond comparing projections to actual outcomes.
   One  Hold
Most Grupo Aval analysts issue ratings four times a year at intervals of three months. A target price accompanies each rating, framing whether the stock is trading above or below its model-implied intrinsic value estimate.
Exposure   Valuation

Grupo Aval Target Price Projection

Grupo Aval's current and average target prices are 4.55 and 4.00, respectively. The current price reflects Grupo Aval's latest market valuation, whereas the target represents what analysts believe the stock is worth.

Current Price

Grupo Aval Market Quote on 11th of May 2026

Low Price4.47Odds
High Price4.59Odds

4.55

Target Price

Analyst Consensus On Grupo Aval Target Price

Low Estimate3.64Odds
High Estimate4.44Odds

4.00

Historical Lowest Forecast  3.64 Target Price  4.0 Highest Forecast  4.44
Most analysts publish their price targets for Grupo Aval in detailed research reports. While financial media outlets frequently cite these targets, a lag may exist between publication and the data reflected here.

Grupo Aval Analyst Ratings

1 analyst currently cover Grupo Aval stock, and the consensus rating is Hold. Of those, 0 are bullish, 0 hold, and 1 are bearish.

Analyst Consensus Breakdown

Average Consensus Estimates

Recommendation Framework, Assumptions & Editorial Oversight

The model output for Grupo Aval reflects the current horizon and risk settings, refreshes as underlying data changes, and is intended to organize evidence rather than replace investor judgment. Current model inputs for Grupo Aval include P/E of 3.11, ROE of 9.39%. External analyst coverage is currently summarized as Hold across 1 analyst, but it is treated here as a secondary reference input rather than a stand-alone recommendation. Published target-price assumptions may also be reviewed when available, but they can change quickly as analyst models are revised.

Grupo Aval data is compiled from periodic company reporting and market reference feeds and standardized for comparability. The model combines valuation, price behavior, volatility, and sentiment into a standardized quantitative view.

Editorial Review & Methodology Oversight

Ellen Johnson
Role: Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board
Finance background: Ellen covers public companies in North America, focusing primarily on valuation and volatility. Six years of experience in predictive investment analytics and risk management.
Oversight scope: Reviews recommendation-framework framing, source assumptions, and disclosure language.
Last reviewed on May 10th, 2026

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