Alibaba Group Holding Stock Market Outlook
| BABA Stock | USD 155.73 3.00 1.89% |
About 56% of Alibaba Group's investor base is looking to short. The analysis of current outlook of investing in Alibaba Group Holding suggests that many traders are alarmed regarding Alibaba Group's prospects. The current market sentiment, together with Alibaba Group's historical and current headlines, can help investors time the market. In addition, many technical investors use Alibaba Group Holding stock news signals to limit their universe of possible portfolio assets.
Comfort Level 44
Impartial
Panic | Confidence |
Today, several news technology companies offer sentiment data to assist traders in manufacturing news sentiment indicators for investment decisions. We partner with these technology firms in helping retail investors build forecasting models that use Alibaba Group's input sentiment indicators derived from textual data and news published on major financial information outlets and social sites. These indicators can be used to analyze time-dependent numerical information representing public perception toward Alibaba Group Holding.
News SentimentBullish | Hype SentimentBearish | Insider SentimentWaiting |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Alibaba Group Holding is 'Strong Hold'. Macroaxis provides Alibaba Group buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding BABA positions.
Execute Alibaba Group Advice
The Alibaba recommendation should be used to complement the investment advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Alibaba Group Holding. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Alibaba Group Holding or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Alibaba Group's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Hold
Market Performance | Weakest | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Low key | Details | |
Current Valuation | Fairly Valued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Tiny | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Follows the market closely | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Alarmed | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Strong Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Poor | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
For the selected time horizon Alibaba Group Holding has a Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.01), Jensen Alpha of (0.10), Total Risk Alpha of (0.27) and Treynor Ratio of (0.13)Macroaxis provides advice on Alibaba Group Holding to complement and cross-verify current analyst consensus on Alibaba Group Holding. Our investment recommendation engine determines the company's potential to grow exclusively from the perspective of an investor's current risk tolerance and investing horizon. To make sure Alibaba Group is not overpriced, please confirm all Alibaba Group Holding fundamentals, including its price to book, ebitda, and the relationship between the number of shares shorted and revenue . Given that Alibaba Group Holding has a price to book of 2.49 X, we suggest you to validate Alibaba Group Holding market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.
Alibaba Group Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Alibaba Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Alibaba Group is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Alibaba Group has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from jpost.com: US withdraws newly updated list of firms allegedly aiding Chinas military |
Alibaba Group Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Alibaba Group's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Alibaba Group's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Alibaba Group daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Alibaba Group Holding price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Alibaba Group returns is essential to provide solid investment analysis for Alibaba Group.
| Mean Return | -0.06 | Value At Risk | -3.43 | Potential Upside | 5.10 | Standard Deviation | 2.66 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Alibaba Group historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Alibaba Stock Institutional Investors
| Shares | Wells Fargo & Co | 2025-06-30 | 1.5 M |
Alibaba Group Cash Flow Accounts
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | ||
| Change In Cash | (129.1B) | 2.2B | 40.6B | (100.4B) | (90.3B) | (85.8B) | |
| Free Cash Flow | 89.5B | 165.4B | 150.8B | 78.2B | 89.9B | 69.6B | |
| Depreciation | 39.5B | 46.9B | 45.3B | 31.1B | 35.8B | 19.8B | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 80.5B | 37.4B | 77.5B | 27.0B | 31.1B | 32.6B | |
| Capital Expenditures | 53.3B | 34.4B | 33.2B | 86.7B | 99.7B | 104.6B | |
| Net Income | 62.2B | 72.8B | 80.4B | 130.5B | 150.1B | 157.6B | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 227.4B | 229.5B | 279.1B | 181.8B | 209.0B | 144.2B | |
| Investments | (144.4B) | (135.5B) | (21.8B) | (185.4B) | (166.9B) | (158.5B) | |
| Net Borrowings | (1.5B) | 11.3B | 2.5B | 64.5B | 74.2B | 77.9B |
Alibaba Group Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Alibaba Group or Broadline Retail sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Alibaba Group's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Alibaba stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.1 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.56 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.64 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
Alibaba Group Volatility Alert
Alibaba Group Holding exhibits very low volatility with skewness of 1.3 and kurtosis of 2.52. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Alibaba Group's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Alibaba Group's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Alibaba Group Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Alibaba Group's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Alibaba Group's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Alibaba Group and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Alibaba Group or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Alibaba Group's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alibaba Group by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Alibaba Group to competition |
| Fundamentals | Alibaba Group | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.11 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0403 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.12 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.02 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 366.37 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 2.39 B | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 11.80 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 40.74 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 112.48 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 2.49 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 0.37 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 996.35 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 416.69 B | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 182.67 B | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 130.51 B | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 145.49 B | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 185.57 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 248.49 B | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 0.18 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 1.77 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 64.44 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 164.82 B | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 2.78 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 7.58 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 1.98 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 198.5 | |
| Number Of Employees | 126.66 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 0.39 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 371.78 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 1.81 T | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 646.47 B | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 238.7 B | 1.48 B |
| Current Asset | 134.07 B | 9.34 B |
Alibaba Group Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Alibaba . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0331 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.57) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 155.47 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 155.56 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 5.24 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.24) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (3.00) |
About Alibaba Group Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Alibaba Group Holding? Buying financial instruments such as Alibaba Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having Alibaba Group in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
Run IT Thematic Idea Now
IT
Information Technology (IT) companies and IT service providers across different domains. The IT theme has 37 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize IT Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Check out Alibaba Group Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try the ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world.
Is Broadline Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alibaba Group. Projected growth potential of Alibaba fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Alibaba Group assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.52) | Dividend Share 7.619 | Earnings Share 7.58 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.048 |
Alibaba Group Holding's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Alibaba's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Alibaba Group's intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Since Alibaba Group's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Alibaba Group's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Alibaba Group should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. However, Alibaba Group's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.