Ultragenyx Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| RARE Stock | USD 40.00 0.85 2.08% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Ultragenyx is 'Hold'. Macroaxis provides Ultragenyx buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding RARE positions.
Check out Ultragenyx Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. For information on how to trade Ultragenyx Stock refer to our How to Trade Ultragenyx Stock guide. Note, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Ultragenyx and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' constraints. Ultragenyx. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in metropolitan statistical area.
Ultragenyx |
Execute Ultragenyx Buy or Sell Advice
The Ultragenyx recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Ultragenyx. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Ultragenyx or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Ultragenyx's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Hold
Market Performance | Very Weak | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Under hyped | Details | |
Current Valuation | Undervalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Follows the market closely | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Alarmed | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Strong Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Healthy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
Ultragenyx Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Ultragenyx generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 434.25 M. Net Loss for the year was (606.64 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (197.59 M). | |
| Ultragenyx currently holds about 542.8 M in cash with (474.81 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 7.75. | |
| Over 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc Announces Grant of Restricted Stock Units to New Employees |
Ultragenyx current analysts advice
We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. Ultragenyx analyst recommendations are determined by taking all analyst recommendations and averaging them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell or Sell. There is no one specific way to measure analysis performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Ultragenyx analyst consensus and target price projections should be used in combination with other traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
Average Consensus Strong Buy
The consensus estimates and target price estimation comprises individual analyst assessments, and may or may not mutch the Macroaxis buy or sell advice. It is determined by taking an average of all analyst recommendations and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, or Sell.
Ultragenyx Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Ultragenyx's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Ultragenyx's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Ultragenyx daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Ultragenyx price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Ultragenyx returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Ultragenyx.
| Mean Return | -0.49 | Value At Risk | -4.47 | Potential Upside | 2.81 | Standard Deviation | 2.28 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Ultragenyx historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Ultragenyx Stock Institutional Investors
| Shares | Deutsche Bank Ag | 2024-09-30 | 1.7 M | Amvescap Plc. | 2024-09-30 | 1.7 M | Baker Bros Advisors Lp | 2024-09-30 | 1.6 M | Geode Capital Management, Llc | 2024-09-30 | 1.6 M | Alliancebernstein L.p. | 2024-09-30 | 1.5 M | Adage Capital Partners Gp Llc | 2024-09-30 | 1.5 M | Alyeska Investment Group, L.p. | 2024-09-30 | 1.2 M | Suvretta Capital Management, Llc | 2024-09-30 | 1.2 M | Aqr Capital Management Llc | 2024-09-30 | 1 M | Vanguard Group Inc | 2024-09-30 | 9.9 M | Blackrock Inc | 2024-09-30 | 5.8 M |
Ultragenyx Cash Flow Accounts
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | ||
| Change In Cash | 290.1M | (416.7M) | (172.0M) | 81.8M | 73.6M | 77.3M | |
| Free Cash Flow | (176.1M) | (411.8M) | (526.6M) | (521.6M) | (469.4M) | (445.9M) | |
| Depreciation | 12.3M | 13.2M | 18.2M | 26.0M | 29.9M | 31.4M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 21.5M | 11.7M | 119.8M | (12.7M) | (14.6M) | (13.8M) | |
| Capital Expenditures | 43.9M | 73.1M | 146.1M | 46.8M | 53.8M | 30.5M | |
| Net Income | (186.6M) | (454.0M) | (707.4M) | (606.6M) | (546.0M) | (518.7M) | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 726.3M | 309.6M | 137.6M | 219.4M | 252.3M | 205.5M | |
| Change To Inventory | (1.3M) | (3.1M) | (9.7M) | (6.9M) | (6.2M) | (5.9M) | |
| Investments | (209.5M) | (201.2M) | (291.7M) | 103.4M | 93.1M | 97.7M | |
| Change To Netincome | 83.2M | 946K | 235K | 74.8M | 86.0M | 90.3M | |
| Change Receivables | (20.1M) | 9.8M | (5.4M) | (12.1M) | (13.9M) | (14.6M) |
Ultragenyx Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Ultragenyx or Biotechnology sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Ultragenyx's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Ultragenyx stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.51 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.62 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.32 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.23 |
Ultragenyx Volatility Alert
Ultragenyx exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -0.48 and kurtosis of 0.82. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Ultragenyx's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Ultragenyx's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Ultragenyx Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Ultragenyx's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Ultragenyx's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Ultragenyx and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Ultragenyx or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Ultragenyx's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ultragenyx by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Ultragenyx to competition |
| Fundamentals | Ultragenyx | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | -2.9 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | -0.24 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | (1.07) % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | (0.95) % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 3.11 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 92.34 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 3.62 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 97.23 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 4.02 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | (6.90) X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 10.65 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 7.22 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 434.25 M | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | (197.59 M) | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | (516.45 M) | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | (606.64 M) | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 542.8 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 7.75 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 43.17 M | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 0.06 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 3.08 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 3.76 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | (474.81 M) | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 5.17 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | (6.22) X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | (0.24) X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 91.6 | |
| Number Of Employees | 1.28 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 0.58 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 3.77 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 1.49 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | (3.39 B) | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 451.75 M | 1.48 B |
Note: Disposition of 11727 shares by Kakkis Emil D of Ultragenyx at 42.23 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Ultragenyx Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Ultragenyx . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
About Ultragenyx Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Ultragenyx? Buying financial instruments such as Ultragenyx Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having Ultragenyx in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
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Check out Ultragenyx Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. For information on how to trade Ultragenyx Stock refer to our How to Trade Ultragenyx Stock guide.You can also try the CEOs Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ultragenyx. If investors know Ultragenyx will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ultragenyx listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (6.22) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.423 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Ultragenyx is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ultragenyx that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ultragenyx's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ultragenyx's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ultragenyx's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ultragenyx's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ultragenyx's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ultragenyx is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ultragenyx's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.