Catalyst Bancorp Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CLST Stock | USD 11.65 0.05 0.43% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Catalyst Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 11.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.65. Catalyst Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Catalyst |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Catalyst Bancorp's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 19 M | Current Value 18.6 M | Quarterly Volatility 6.3 M |
Catalyst Bancorp Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Catalyst Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 11.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.65.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Catalyst Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Catalyst Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Catalyst Bancorp Stock Forecast Pattern
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Catalyst Bancorp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Catalyst Bancorp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Catalyst Bancorp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.30 and 12.74, respectively. We have considered Catalyst Bancorp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Catalyst Bancorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Catalyst Bancorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.7862 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0927 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0082 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.6522 |
Predictive Modules for Catalyst Bancorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Catalyst Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Catalyst Bancorp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Catalyst Bancorp
For every potential investor in Catalyst, whether a beginner or expert, Catalyst Bancorp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Catalyst Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Catalyst. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Catalyst Bancorp's price trends.Catalyst Bancorp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Catalyst Bancorp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Catalyst Bancorp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Catalyst Bancorp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Catalyst Bancorp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Catalyst Bancorp's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Catalyst Bancorp's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Catalyst Bancorp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Catalyst Bancorp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Catalyst Bancorp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Catalyst Bancorp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Catalyst Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Catalyst Bancorp Risk Indicators
The analysis of Catalyst Bancorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Catalyst Bancorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting catalyst stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.802 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.21 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.21 | |||
| Variance | 1.48 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.88 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.47 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.95) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Tools for Catalyst Stock Analysis
When running Catalyst Bancorp's price analysis, check to measure Catalyst Bancorp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Catalyst Bancorp is operating at the current time. Most of Catalyst Bancorp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Catalyst Bancorp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Catalyst Bancorp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Catalyst Bancorp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.