Catalyst Bancorp Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| CLST Stock | USD 15.50 0.10 0.64% |
Catalyst Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The value of RSI of Catalyst Bancorp's share price is at 59 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Catalyst Bancorp, making its price go up or down. Momentum 59
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Catalyst Bancorp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Catalyst Bancorp from the perspective of Catalyst Bancorp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Catalyst Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 15.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.01. Catalyst Bancorp after-hype prediction price | USD 15.5 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Catalyst Bancorp to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Catalyst Stock please use our How to Invest in Catalyst Bancorp guide.Catalyst Bancorp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Catalyst price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Catalyst using various technical indicators. When you analyze Catalyst charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Catalyst Bancorp Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Catalyst Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 15.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.01.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Catalyst Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Catalyst Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Catalyst Bancorp Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Catalyst Bancorp | Catalyst Bancorp Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Catalyst Bancorp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Catalyst Bancorp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Catalyst Bancorp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.36 and 16.64, respectively. We have considered Catalyst Bancorp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Catalyst Bancorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Catalyst Bancorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.9838 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0512 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1188 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.008 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.01 |
Predictive Modules for Catalyst Bancorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Catalyst Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Catalyst Bancorp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Catalyst Bancorp After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Catalyst Bancorp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Catalyst Bancorp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Catalyst Bancorp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Catalyst Bancorp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Catalyst Bancorp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Catalyst Bancorp's historical news coverage. Catalyst Bancorp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.36 and 16.64, respectively. We have considered Catalyst Bancorp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Catalyst Bancorp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Catalyst Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Catalyst Bancorp Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Catalyst Bancorp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Catalyst Bancorp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Catalyst Bancorp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.24 | 1.14 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
15.50 | 15.50 | 0.00 |
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Catalyst Bancorp Hype Timeline
Catalyst Bancorp is currently traded for 15.50. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.05. Catalyst is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.24%. %. The volatility of related hype on Catalyst Bancorp is about 550.72%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 15.55. About 17.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.78. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Catalyst Bancorp has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 650.0. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1:5 split on the 22nd of February 2002. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Catalyst Bancorp to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Catalyst Stock please use our How to Invest in Catalyst Bancorp guide.Catalyst Bancorp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Catalyst Bancorp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Catalyst Bancorp's future price movements. Getting to know how Catalyst Bancorp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Catalyst Bancorp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BYFC | Broadway Financial | 0.38 | 6 per month | 2.46 | 0.03 | 3.99 | (3.68) | 25.87 | |
| CASH | Meta Financial Group | 0.30 | 8 per month | 0.99 | 0.15 | 3.43 | (1.72) | 5.74 | |
| HFBL | Home Federal Bancorp | 0.30 | 12 per month | 3.71 | 0.10 | 6.92 | (3.85) | 21.76 | |
| NSTS | NSTS Bancorp | 0.30 | 4 per month | 0.68 | 0.09 | 2.00 | (1.55) | 7.95 | |
| FSEA | First Seacoast Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.09 | 0.04 | 4.23 | (3.38) | 25.19 | |
| ASRV | AmeriServ Financial | 0.30 | 8 per month | 1.77 | 0.02 | 2.89 | (3.13) | 8.63 | |
| PBBK | PB Bankshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| TCBS | Texas Community Bancshares | 0.30 | 4 per month | 1.27 | (0) | 2.03 | (2.22) | 12.58 | |
| FDSB | Fifth District Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.31 | 0.16 | 1.09 | (1.05) | 3.97 | |
| OPHC | OptimumBank Holdings | 0.19 | 11 per month | 0.74 | 0.12 | 2.14 | (1.71) | 8.83 |
Other Forecasting Options for Catalyst Bancorp
For every potential investor in Catalyst, whether a beginner or expert, Catalyst Bancorp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Catalyst Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Catalyst. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Catalyst Bancorp's price trends.Catalyst Bancorp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Catalyst Bancorp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Catalyst Bancorp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Catalyst Bancorp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Catalyst Bancorp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Catalyst Bancorp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Catalyst Bancorp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Catalyst Bancorp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Catalyst Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Catalyst Bancorp Risk Indicators
The analysis of Catalyst Bancorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Catalyst Bancorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting catalyst stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7264 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6654 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.14 | |||
| Variance | 1.31 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.31 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.4428 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.89) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Catalyst Bancorp
The number of cover stories for Catalyst Bancorp depends on current market conditions and Catalyst Bancorp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Catalyst Bancorp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Catalyst Bancorp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Catalyst Bancorp Short Properties
Catalyst Bancorp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Catalyst Bancorp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Catalyst Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Catalyst Bancorp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Catalyst Bancorp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 44.3 M |
Additional Tools for Catalyst Stock Analysis
When running Catalyst Bancorp's price analysis, check to measure Catalyst Bancorp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Catalyst Bancorp is operating at the current time. Most of Catalyst Bancorp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Catalyst Bancorp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Catalyst Bancorp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Catalyst Bancorp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.