National Health Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| NHI Stock | USD 77.71 0.16 0.21% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of National Health Investors on the next trading day is expected to be 74.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.84 and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.22. National Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of National Health's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
National |
National Health Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the National Health's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 1996-09-30 | Previous Quarter 14.8 M | Current Value 15.6 M | Quarterly Volatility 48.2 M |
National Health Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of National Health Investors on the next trading day is expected to be 74.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.84, mean absolute percentage error of 1.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.22.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict National Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that National Health's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
National Health Stock Forecast Pattern
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National Health Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting National Health's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. National Health's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 73.21 and 75.93, respectively. We have considered National Health's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of National Health stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent National Health stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.2298 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8396 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0106 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 51.2184 |
Predictive Modules for National Health
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Health Investors. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for National Health
For every potential investor in National, whether a beginner or expert, National Health's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. National Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in National. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying National Health's price trends.National Health Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with National Health stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of National Health could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing National Health by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
National Health Investors Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of National Health's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of National Health's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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National Health Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how National Health stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading National Health shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying National Health stock market strength indicators, traders can identify National Health Investors entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 2075.48 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.16) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 78.03 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 77.92 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.40) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.16) |
National Health Risk Indicators
The analysis of National Health's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in National Health's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting national stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.09 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.3 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.38 | |||
| Variance | 1.9 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.97 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.69 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.11) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether National Health Investors offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of National Health's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of National Health Investors Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on National Health Investors Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of National Health to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.
Is Diversified REITs space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of National Health. If investors know National will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about National Health listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.14) | Dividend Share 3.6 | Earnings Share 2.91 | Revenue Per Share 7.598 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.12) |
The market value of National Health Investors is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of National that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of National Health's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is National Health's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because National Health's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect National Health's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between National Health's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if National Health is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, National Health's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.