Correlation Between Five Year and Wheat Futures

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Can any of the company-specific risk be diversified away by investing in both Five Year and Wheat Futures at the same time? Although using a correlation coefficient on its own may not help to predict future stock returns, this module helps to understand the diversifiable risk of combining Five Year and Wheat Futures into the same portfolio, which is an essential part of the fundamental portfolio management process.
By analyzing existing cross correlation between Five Year Treasury Note and Wheat Futures, you can compare the effects of market volatilities on Five Year and Wheat Futures and check how they will diversify away market risk if combined in the same portfolio for a given time horizon. You can also utilize pair trading strategies of matching a long position in Five Year with a short position of Wheat Futures. Check out your portfolio center. Please also check ongoing floating volatility patterns of Five Year and Wheat Futures.

Diversification Opportunities for Five Year and Wheat Futures

0.45
  Correlation Coefficient

Very weak diversification

The 3 months correlation between Five and Wheat is 0.45. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Five Year Treasury Note and Wheat Futures in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed. The correlation between historical prices or returns on Wheat Futures and Five Year is a relative statistical measure of the degree to which these equity instruments tend to move together. The correlation coefficient measures the extent to which returns on Five Year Treasury Note are associated (or correlated) with Wheat Futures. Values of the correlation coefficient range from -1 to +1, where. The correlation of zero (0) is possible when the price movement of Wheat Futures has no effect on the direction of Five Year i.e., Five Year and Wheat Futures go up and down completely randomly.

Pair Corralation between Five Year and Wheat Futures

Assuming the 90 days horizon Five Year Treasury Note is expected to generate 0.11 times more return on investment than Wheat Futures. However, Five Year Treasury Note is 9.19 times less risky than Wheat Futures. It trades about 0.05 of its potential returns per unit of risk. Wheat Futures is currently generating about -0.26 per unit of risk. If you would invest  10,717  in Five Year Treasury Note on September 3, 2024 and sell it today you would earn a total of  23.00  from holding Five Year Treasury Note or generate 0.21% return on investment over 90 days.
Time Period3 Months [change]
DirectionMoves Together 
StrengthWeak
Accuracy95.24%
ValuesDaily Returns

Five Year Treasury Note  vs.  Wheat Futures

 Performance 
       Timeline  
Five Year Treasury 

Risk-Adjusted Performance

0 of 100

 
Weak
 
Strong
Very Weak
Over the last 90 days Five Year Treasury Note has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. In spite of rather sound basic indicators, Five Year is not utilizing all of its potentials. The current stock price tumult, may contribute to shorter-term losses for the shareholders.
Wheat Futures 

Risk-Adjusted Performance

0 of 100

 
Weak
 
Strong
Very Weak
Over the last 90 days Wheat Futures has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. In spite of latest unsteady performance, the Commodity's basic indicators remain strong and the current disturbance on Wall Street may also be a sign of long term gains for Wheat Futures investors.

Five Year and Wheat Futures Volatility Contrast

   Predicted Return Density   
       Returns  

Pair Trading with Five Year and Wheat Futures

The main advantage of trading using opposite Five Year and Wheat Futures positions is that it hedges away some unsystematic risk. Because of two separate transactions, even if Five Year position performs unexpectedly, Wheat Futures can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Wheat Futures will offset losses from the drop in Wheat Futures' long position.
The idea behind Five Year Treasury Note and Wheat Futures pairs trading is to make the combined position market-neutral, meaning the overall market's direction will not affect its win or loss (or potential downside or upside). This can be achieved by designing a pairs trade with two highly correlated stocks or equities that operate in a similar space or sector, making it possible to obtain profits through simple and relatively low-risk investment.
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Note that this page's information should be used as a complementary analysis to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .

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