Castellum Stock Performance

CTM Stock  USD 0.96  0.01  0.52%   
The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.44, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Castellum's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Castellum is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Castellum has a negative expected return of -0.24%. Please make sure to confirm Castellum's value at risk, as well as the relationship between the skewness and day typical price , to decide if Castellum performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Weakest

 
Weak
 
Strong
Over the last 90 days Castellum has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. In spite of uncertain performance in the last few months, the Stock's basic indicators remain very healthy which may send shares a bit higher in March 2026. The recent disarray may also be a sign of long period up-swing for the firm investors. ...more
Last Split Factor
1:20
Last Split Date
2022-10-13
1
Disposition of 160000 shares by Jay Wright of Castellum at 1.165 subject to Rule 16b-3
11/13/2025
2
Disposition of 18000 shares by Jay Wright of Castellum at 1.055 subject to Rule 16b-3
11/28/2025
3
Disposition of 35000 shares by Jay Wright of Castellum at 1.05 subject to Rule 16b-3
12/01/2025
4
Castellum Announces the Award of Multiple Missile Defense Agency SHIELD IDIQ Contracts
12/08/2025
5
Centaurus Metals Limited stock most popular amongst retail investors who own 52, while private companies hold 27
12/09/2025
6
Disposition of 127000 shares by Jay Wright of Castellum at 1.207 subject to Rule 16b-3
12/10/2025
7
Disposition of 50000 shares by Jay Wright of Castellum at 1.161 subject to Rule 16b-3
12/11/2025
8
Disposition of 11000 shares by Jay Wright of Castellum at 1.159 subject to Rule 16b-3
12/12/2025
9
Disposition of 6000 shares by Jay Wright of Castellum at 1.103 subject to Rule 16b-3
12/15/2025
10
Disposition of 12000 shares by Jay Wright of Castellum at 1.073 subject to Rule 16b-3
12/16/2025
11
Insider Trading
12/31/2025
12
Castellum, Inc. Announces the Award of a 49.8 Million Recompete Contract to its SSI Subsidiary
01/07/2026
13
Disposition of tradable shares by Buckhout Laurie M of Castellum subject to Rule 16b-3
01/09/2026
14
Canada Growth Fund Leads US85 Million Financing in BC-based Mangrove Lithium alongside existing investors
01/15/2026
15
Disposition of 500000 shares by Mark Fuller of Castellum at 1.12 subject to Rule 16b-3
01/27/2026
Begin Period Cash Flow1.8 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities221.4 K

Castellum Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  117.00  in Castellum on October 31, 2025 and sell it today you would lose (20.50) from holding Castellum or give up 17.52% of portfolio value over 90 days. Castellum is generating negative expected returns assuming volatility of 3.9022% on return distribution over 90 days investment horizon. In other words, 35% of stocks are less volatile than Castellum, and above 99% of all equities are expected to generate higher returns over the next 90 days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Castellum is expected to under-perform the market. In addition to that, the company is 5.17 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about -0.06 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.07 per unit of volatility.

Castellum Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Castellum Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 0.96 90 days 0.96 
about 88.22
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Castellum to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 88.22 (This Castellum probability density function shows the probability of Castellum Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Castellum has a beta of 0.44 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Castellum average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Castellum will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Castellum has an alpha of 0.0864, implying that it can generate a 0.0864 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Castellum Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Castellum

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Castellum. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Castellum's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.050.954.85
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.081.575.47
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
0.020.954.86
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
3.193.503.89
Details

Castellum Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Castellum is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Castellum's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Castellum, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Castellum within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.09
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.44
σ
Overall volatility
0.08
Ir
Information ratio 0.01

Castellum Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Castellum for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Castellum can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Castellum generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Castellum has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
Castellum has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company reported the last year's revenue of 44.76 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (9.98 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 19.22 M.
About 21.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 500000 shares by Mark Fuller of Castellum at 1.12 subject to Rule 16b-3

Castellum Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Castellum Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Castellum's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Castellum's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding55.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments12 M

Castellum Fundamentals Growth

Castellum Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Castellum, and Castellum fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Castellum Stock performance.

About Castellum Performance

By examining Castellum's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can obtain critical insights into Castellum's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability. These insights assist in making well-informed investment and management decisions. For example, a high Return on Assets and Return on Equity would indicate that Castellum is effectively utilizing its assets and equity to generate significant profits, enhancing its appeal to investors. On the other hand, low ROA and ROE values could reveal issues in asset and equity management, highlighting the need for operational improvements.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Days Of Inventory On Hand 636.98  755.16 
Return On Tangible Assets(0.44)(0.46)
Return On Capital Employed(0.30)(0.28)
Return On Assets(0.24)(0.25)
Return On Equity(0.57)(0.54)

Things to note about Castellum performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Castellum for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Castellum help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Castellum generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Castellum has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
Castellum has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company reported the last year's revenue of 44.76 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (9.98 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 19.22 M.
About 21.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 500000 shares by Mark Fuller of Castellum at 1.12 subject to Rule 16b-3
Evaluating Castellum's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Castellum's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing Castellum's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Castellum's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Castellum's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Castellum's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Castellum's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Castellum's stock. These opinions can provide insight into Castellum's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Castellum's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Castellum's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.
When determining whether Castellum is a strong investment it is important to analyze Castellum's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Castellum's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Castellum Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Castellum. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in population.
To learn how to invest in Castellum Stock, please use our How to Invest in Castellum guide.
You can also try the Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.
Will Application Software sector continue expanding? Could Castellum diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Castellum. Projected growth potential of Castellum fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Castellum data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Earnings Share
(0.06)
Revenue Per Share
0.637
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.259
Return On Assets
(0.05)
Return On Equity
(0.16)
The market value of Castellum is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Castellum that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Castellum's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Castellum's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Castellum's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Castellum's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Castellum's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Castellum should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, Castellum's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.