Elf Beauty Stock Performance

ELF Stock  USD 84.98  1.75  2.02%   
The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 2.27, which means a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, ELF Beauty will likely underperform. At this point, ELF Beauty has a negative expected return of -0.44%. Please make sure to confirm ELF Beauty's variance, skewness, period momentum indicator, as well as the relationship between the total risk alpha and day median price , to decide if ELF Beauty performance from the past will be repeated in the future.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Weakest

 
Weak
 
Strong
Over the last 90 days ELF Beauty has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. Despite unsteady performance in the last few months, the Stock's essential indicators remain nearly stable which may send shares a bit higher in February 2026. The current disturbance may also be a sign of long-run up-swing for the company stockholders. ...more

Actual Historical Performance (%)

One Day Return
(2.33)
Five Day Return
(9.26)
Year To Date Return
11.46
Ten Year Return
227.28
All Time Return
227.28
1
Disposition of 33038 shares by Tarang Amin of ELF Beauty at 131.8583 subject to Rule 16b-3
11/21/2025
2
Questexs BeWell Beauty and Wellness Show New York Announces Star-Studded Lineup for 2026
01/07/2026
3
e.l.f. Beauty Gains As Market Dips What You Should Know
01/13/2026
4
What Makes e.l.f. Beauty Attractive
01/15/2026
5
White Lotus Beauty Leads the Wellness Reset with Its Best-Selling Acupressure Mat Set
01/20/2026
6
A Look At e.l.f. Beauty Valuation After Its New Liquid Death Collaboration
01/21/2026
7
E.l.f. Beautys Liquid Death Relaunch Meets Rising Short Interest Concerns
01/22/2026
8
e.l.f. Beauty Extends Liquid Death Tie Up To Deepen Brand Engagement
01/23/2026
9
e.l.f. Beauty Raised to Hold at Wall Street Zen
01/26/2026
Begin Period Cash Flow108.2 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-19.1 M

ELF Beauty Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  12,311  in ELF Beauty on October 30, 2025 and sell it today you would lose (3,813) from holding ELF Beauty or give up 30.97% of portfolio value over 90 days. ELF Beauty is generating negative expected returns assuming volatility of 5.2858% on return distribution over 90 days investment horizon. In other words, 47% of stocks are less volatile than ELF, and above 99% of all equities are expected to generate higher returns over the next 90 days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Considering the 90-day investment horizon ELF Beauty is expected to under-perform the market. In addition to that, the company is 7.06 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about -0.08 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.07 per unit of volatility.

ELF Beauty Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of ELF Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 84.98 90 days 84.98 
about 54.59
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ELF Beauty to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 54.59 (This ELF Beauty probability density function shows the probability of ELF Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.27 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, ELF Beauty will likely underperform. Additionally ELF Beauty has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   ELF Beauty Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for ELF Beauty

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ELF Beauty. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
81.5886.9192.24
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
78.0696.54101.87
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
82.1187.4492.77
Details
17 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
102.31112.43124.80
Details

ELF Beauty Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ELF Beauty is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ELF Beauty's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ELF Beauty, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ELF Beauty within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.54
β
Beta against Dow Jones2.27
σ
Overall volatility
17.44
Ir
Information ratio -0.09

ELF Beauty Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ELF Beauty for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ELF Beauty can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
ELF Beauty generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
ELF Beauty has high historical volatility and very poor performance
ELF Beauty has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: e.l.f. Beauty Raised to Hold at Wall Street Zen

ELF Beauty Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ELF Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ELF Beauty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ELF Beauty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding58.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments148.7 M

ELF Beauty Fundamentals Growth

ELF Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of ELF Beauty, and ELF Beauty fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on ELF Stock performance.

About ELF Beauty Performance

By analyzing ELF Beauty's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into ELF Beauty's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if ELF Beauty has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if ELF Beauty has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Days Of Inventory On Hand 161.56  148.49 
Return On Tangible Assets 0.09  0.06 
Return On Capital Employed 0.07  0.07 
Return On Assets 0.04  0.04 
Return On Equity 0.07  0.06 

Things to note about ELF Beauty performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about ELF Beauty for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for ELF Beauty help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
ELF Beauty generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
ELF Beauty has high historical volatility and very poor performance
ELF Beauty has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: e.l.f. Beauty Raised to Hold at Wall Street Zen
Evaluating ELF Beauty's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate ELF Beauty's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing ELF Beauty's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether ELF Beauty's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining ELF Beauty's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating ELF Beauty's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of ELF Beauty's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of ELF Beauty's stock. These opinions can provide insight into ELF Beauty's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating ELF Beauty's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact ELF Beauty's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

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When running ELF Beauty's price analysis, check to measure ELF Beauty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ELF Beauty is operating at the current time. Most of ELF Beauty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ELF Beauty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ELF Beauty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ELF Beauty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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