Elf Beauty Stock Market Outlook
| ELF Stock | USD 74.46 7.63 9.29% |
Roughly 55% of ELF Beauty's investor base is interested to short. The analysis of overall sentiment of trading ELF Beauty stock suggests that many investors are impartial at this time. The current market sentiment, together with ELF Beauty's historical and current headlines, can help investors time the market. In addition, many technical investors use ELF Beauty stock news signals to limit their universe of possible portfolio assets.
Comfort Level 45
Impartial
Panic | Confidence |
Today, several news technology companies offer sentiment data to assist traders in manufacturing news sentiment indicators for investment decisions. We partner with these technology firms in helping retail investors build forecasting models that use ELF Beauty's input sentiment indicators derived from textual data and news published on major financial information outlets and social sites. These indicators can be used to analyze time-dependent numerical information representing public perception toward ELF Beauty.
News SentimentBullish | Hype SentimentBearish | Insider SentimentDisposing |
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding ELF Beauty is 'Sell'. Macroaxis provides ELF Beauty buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding ELF positions.
Execute ELF Beauty Advice
The ELF recommendation should be used to complement the investment advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on ELF Beauty. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in ELF Beauty or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute ELF Beauty's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Sell
Market Performance | Soft | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Low key | Details | |
Current Valuation | Undervalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Hyperactively responds to market trends | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Alarmed | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Strong Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Frail | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Possible Manipulator | Details |
For the selected time horizon ELF Beauty has a Mean Deviation of 2.75, Standard Deviation of 5.28 and Variance of 27.84Macroaxis provides unbiased investment recommendation on ELF Beauty that should be used to complement current analysts and expert consensus on ELF Beauty. Our trade advice engine determines the company's potential to grow exclusively from the perspective of an investors' current risk tolerance and investing horizon. To make sure ELF Beauty is not overpriced, please confirm all ELF Beauty fundamentals, including its shares outstanding, price to sales, cash per share, as well as the relationship between the number of shares shorted and ebitda . Given that ELF Beauty has a price to earning of 483.60 X, we urge you to verify ELF Beauty market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the future given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.
ELF Beauty Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| ELF Beauty generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| ELF Beauty has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| ELF Beauty has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: A Look At E.l.f. Beauty Valuation After Strong Q3 Results And Raised Outlook |
ELF Beauty Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of ELF Beauty's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of ELF Beauty's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of ELF Beauty daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use ELF Beauty price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of ELF Beauty returns is essential to provide solid investment analysis for ELF Beauty.
| Mean Return | -0.42 | Value At Risk | -5.06 | Potential Upside | 4.81 | Standard Deviation | 5.28 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of ELF Beauty historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
ELF Stock Institutional Investors
| Shares | Wellington Management Company Llp | 2025-06-30 | 904.1 K | Fmr Inc | 2025-06-30 | 878.3 K | Capital Research & Mgmt Co - Division 3 | 2025-06-30 | 837.2 K | Goldman Sachs Group Inc | 2025-06-30 | 741.9 K | Balyasny Asset Management Llc | 2025-06-30 | 693.3 K | Swedbank Ab | 2025-06-30 | 693.1 K | Capital World Investors | 2025-06-30 | 648.1 K | Prime Capital Management Company Limited | 2025-06-30 | 604.5 K | Bank Of America Corp | 2025-06-30 | 567.6 K | Baillie Gifford & Co Limited. | 2025-06-30 | 7.8 M | Blackrock Inc | 2025-06-30 | 5.9 M |
ELF Beauty Cash Flow Accounts
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | ||
| Change To Inventory | (10.9M) | (27.7M) | 3.2M | (93.9M) | 4.9M | (456.8K) | |
| Investments | (6.5M) | (4.8M) | (1.7M) | (284.7M) | (19.1M) | (37.1M) | |
| Change In Cash | 11.6M | (14.4M) | 77.4M | (12.6M) | 40.5M | (7.3M) | |
| Net Borrowings | (11.8M) | (28.9M) | (30M) | 196.6M | (6.2M) | (9.0M) | |
| Free Cash Flow | 23.0M | 14.7M | 100.2M | 62.5M | 115.3M | 31.4M | |
| Depreciation | 25.2M | 27.1M | 22.2M | 35.9M | 44.1M | 21.2M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 3.9M | 1.4M | 701K | (6.0M) | 10.4M | (4.1M) | |
| Capital Expenditures | 6.5M | 4.8M | 1.7M | 8.7M | 18.5M | 8.7M | |
| Net Income | 6.2M | 21.8M | 61.5M | 127.7M | 112.1M | 30.2M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 57.8M | 43.4M | 120.8M | 108.2M | 148.7M | 49.8M | |
| Change To Netincome | 12.8M | 14.1M | 17.0M | 23.1M | 14.7M | 11.0M |
ELF Beauty Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to ELF Beauty or Personal Care Products sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that ELF Beauty's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a ELF stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.63 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.52 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.04 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.1 |
ELF Beauty Volatility Alert
ELF Beauty exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -4.35 and kurtosis of 28.67. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure ELF Beauty's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact ELF Beauty's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.ELF Beauty Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing ELF Beauty's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze ELF Beauty's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between ELF Beauty and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as ELF Beauty or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of ELF Beauty's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ELF Beauty by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare ELF Beauty to competition |
| Fundamentals | ELF Beauty | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.11 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0611 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.07 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.14 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 5.58 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 59.05 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 2.23 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 97.77 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 7.95 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 483.60 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 4.17 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 3.22 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 1.31 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 1.07 B | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 206.25 M | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 112.09 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 148.69 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 1.38 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 313.02 M | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 0.34 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 3.51 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 19.68 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 133.84 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 4.78 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 1.77 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 2.03 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 113.5 | |
| Number Of Employees | 633 | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 1.68 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 4.9 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 1.25 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | (182.25 M) | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 363.5 M | 1.48 B |
Note: Disposition of 33038 shares by Tarang Amin of ELF Beauty at 131.8583 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
ELF Beauty Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as ELF . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 367496.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.99) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.91 | |||
| Day Median Price | 77.92 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 76.77 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (7.28) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (7.63) |
ELF Beauty Target Price Consensus
ELF target price is determined by taking all analyst projections and averaging them out. There is no one specific way to measure analysts' performance other than comparing it to past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. ELF Beauty's target price projections below should be used in combination with other traditional price prediction techniques such as stock price forecasting, investor sentiment analysis, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
| 17 | Strong Buy |
Most ELF analysts issue ratings four times a year, at intervals of three months. Ratings are usually accompanied by a target price to help potential investors understand ELF stock's fair price compared to its market value. Analysts arrive at stock ratings after researching the public financial statements of ELF Beauty, talking to its executives and customers, or listening to those companies' conference calls.
Macroaxis Advice Exposure ValuationELF Beauty Target Price Projection
ELF Beauty's current and average target prices are 74.46 and 113.50, respectively. The current price of ELF Beauty is the price at which ELF Beauty is currently trading. On the other hand, ELF Beauty's target price is what analysts think the stock is worth. The more significant the discrepancy between the two prices, the more it stimulates investors to act.Current Price
ELF Beauty Market Quote on 9th of February 2026
Target Price
Analyst Consensus On ELF Beauty Target Price
ELF Beauty Analyst Ratings
ELF Beauty's analyst stock recommendations are determined by taking an average estimate of all analysts we track and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell, or Sell. Ratings generally communicate what analysts sense about ELF Beauty stock, and they use a lot of effort and time to analyze it and arrive at a rating. That suggests that analyst recommendations are the outcome of an objective and thorough examination of ELF Beauty's financials, market performance, and future outlook by experienced professionals. ELF Beauty's historical ratings below, therefore, can serve as a valuable tool for investors.Analyst Consensus Breakdown
Average Consensus Estimates
About ELF Beauty Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell ELF Beauty? Buying financial instruments such as ELF Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having ELF Beauty in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
Run Cigarettes Thematic Idea Now
Cigarettes
Tobacco makers and distributors across globe. The Cigarettes theme has 11 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Cigarettes Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Check out ELF Beauty Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. For more detail on how to invest in ELF Stock please use our How to Invest in ELF Beauty guide.You can also try the Competition Analyzer module to analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities.
Can Personal Care Products industry sustain growth momentum? Does ELF have expansion opportunities? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ELF Beauty. Projected growth potential of ELF fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Determining accurate worth demands scrutiny of both present operating results and projected expansion capacity. Evaluating ELF Beauty demands reviewing these metrics collectively while recognizing certain factors exert disproportionate influence.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.167 | Earnings Share 1.77 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.378 | Return On Assets |
The market value of ELF Beauty is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ELF that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ELF Beauty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ELF Beauty's true underlying value. Market participants employ diverse analytical approaches to determine fair value and identify buying opportunities when prices dip below calculated worth. Because ELF Beauty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ELF Beauty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between ELF Beauty's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding ELF Beauty should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, ELF Beauty's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.