Merchants Financial Group Stock Performance

MFGI Stock  USD 34.15  0.04  0.12%   
On a scale of 0 to 100, Merchants Financial holds a performance score of 34. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.0082, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Merchants Financial are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Merchants Financial is likely to outperform the market. Please check Merchants Financial's expected short fall, and the relationship between the value at risk and rate of daily change , to make a quick decision on whether Merchants Financial's current price movements will revert.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

High

 
Weak
 
Strong
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in Merchants Financial Group are ranked lower than 34 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. Despite fairly unsteady technical and fundamental indicators, Merchants Financial demonstrated solid returns over the last few months and may actually be approaching a breakup point. ...more
  

Merchants Financial Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  2,765  in Merchants Financial Group on November 9, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of  650.00  from holding Merchants Financial Group or generate 23.51% return on investment over 90 days. Merchants Financial Group is currently generating 0.3499% in daily expected returns and assumes 0.8062% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. In different words, 7% of pink sheets are less volatile than Merchants, and 93% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Merchants Financial is expected to generate 0.98 times more return on investment than the market. However, the company is 1.02 times less risky than the market. It trades about 0.43 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.12 per unit of risk.

Merchants Financial Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Merchants Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 34.15 90 days 34.15 
under 4
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Merchants Financial to move above the current price in 90 days from now is under 4 (This Merchants Financial Group probability density function shows the probability of Merchants Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Merchants Financial Group has a beta of -0.0082. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Merchants Financial are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Merchants Financial Group is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Merchants Financial Group has an alpha of 0.3653, implying that it can generate a 0.37 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Merchants Financial Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Merchants Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Merchants Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
33.3434.1534.96
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
26.5127.3237.57
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
34.6735.4836.28
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
28.4231.3834.35
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Merchants Financial. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Merchants Financial's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Merchants Financial's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Merchants Financial.

Merchants Financial Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Merchants Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Merchants Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Merchants Financial Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Merchants Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.37
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.0082
σ
Overall volatility
1.98
Ir
Information ratio 0.32

Merchants Financial Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Merchants Financial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Merchants Financial can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Merchants is showing solid risk-adjusted performance over 90 days

Merchants Financial Fundamentals Growth

Merchants Pink Sheet prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Merchants Financial, and Merchants Financial fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Merchants Pink Sheet performance.

About Merchants Financial Performance

By evaluating Merchants Financial's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into Merchants Financial's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if Merchants Financial has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if Merchants Financial has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements. Please also refer to our technical analysis and fundamental analysis pages.
Merchants Financial Group, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Merchants Bank, National Association that provides various banking products and services to individuals and families, and companies in the United States. The company was founded in 1875 and is headquartered in Winona, Minnesota. Merchants Financial is traded on OTC Exchange in the United States.

Things to note about Merchants Financial performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Merchants Financial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Pink Sheet alerts and notifications screener for Merchants Financial help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Merchants is showing solid risk-adjusted performance over 90 days
Evaluating Merchants Financial's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Merchants Financial's pink sheet performance include:
  • Analyzing Merchants Financial's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Merchants Financial's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Merchants Financial's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Merchants Financial's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Merchants Financial's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Merchants Financial's pink sheet. These opinions can provide insight into Merchants Financial's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Merchants Financial's pink sheet performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Merchants Financial's pink sheet market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

Complementary Tools for Merchants Pink Sheet analysis

When running Merchants Financial's price analysis, check to measure Merchants Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Merchants Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Merchants Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Merchants Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Merchants Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Merchants Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Portfolio Manager
State of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital
Idea Analyzer
Analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas
Equity Analysis
Research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities
Bollinger Bands
Use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon
Balance Of Power
Check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios
Positions Ratings
Determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Correlation Analysis
Reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated
Aroon Oscillator
Analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios
Price Transformation
Use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets