Murphy USA Stock Performance

MUSA Stock  USD 576.37  -28.15  -4.66%   
For Murphy USA, absolute and relative returns are mapped against common benchmarks. The stock's expected return over 3 months is 0.73%, complemented by a 0.42% dividend yield.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
0100
19 · Constructive
Over the last 90 days, Murphy USA ranks in the bottom 81% of global equities and portfolios on a risk-adjusted return basis. In practice, the ranking separates absolute gains from efficient gains. The recent return profile for Murphy USA shows positive risk-adjusted momentum across the measured horizon. Learn More

Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you had invested $ 37,728 in Murphy USA on February 6, 2026 and sold it today, you would have earned $ 19,909 , a return of 52.77% over 90 days. Murphy USA is currently generating a 0.7271% daily expected return and carries 2.94% risk (volatility on return distribution) over a 90-day horizon. In relative terms, Murphy USA exhibits above-average volatility, exceeding roughly 74% of comparable stocks, and MUSA has trailed 86% of traded instruments in return over the 90-day horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
This market-relative note looks at return potential and the amount of risk required to get it. It highlights whether the current reward profile compensates for the level of uncertainty assumed. Given a 90-day horizon, MUSA generates 3.17 times more return on investment than the market. However, MUSA is 3.17 times more volatile than its market benchmark. Its risk-adjusted efficiency stands at about 0.25% per unit of risk. Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.0% per unit of risk.

Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

For Murphy USA Stock, the tendency of price to converge toward a long-term average provides a useful forecasting baseline. Investors have relied on this tendency for decades, though persistent mispricings in some instruments suggest additional risk factors.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds moving above the current price in 90 days
576.37 90 days 576.37
under 4%
Based on standard probability analysis, the odds of Murphy USA moving above the current price in 90 days from now are under 4%. Over this horizon, the return distribution for this stock has leaned toward above-current outcomes historically. (The curve highlights the price band where the market has recently concentrated expectations for Murphy USA Stock over the next 90 days). A narrower shape indicates the market has recently priced Murphy USA Stock into a more concentrated outcome range.
Given a 90-day horizon, Murphy USA has a beta of -0.84. This indicates that as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on Murphy USA tend to move in the opposite direction, though by a smaller magnitude. During a bear market, however, Murphy USA tends to outperform the market. Additionally, Murphy USA has an alpha of 0.6358, implying that it can generate a 0.6358 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherent market risk (beta).
   Murphy USA Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Murphy USA

A variety of analytical techniques are available for forecasting Murphy USA and the broader stock market. From technical pattern analysis to statistical models, each method contributes a different perspective on Murphy USA.
The mean reversion principle applied to Murphy USA's suggests that neither prolonged outperformance nor underperformance is permanent. Identifying the root cause of Murphy USA's price dislocation is essential before acting on a mean reversion signal.
Sentiment
Range
LowSentimentHigh
573.47576.41579.35
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowIntrinsicHigh
442.27445.21634.01
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
622.14625.08628.01
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
454.85526.31597.76
Details
Competitive analysis for Murphy USA compares its financial performance and valuation metrics against sector peers. Cross-sectional comparison separates idiosyncratic performance from sector-level dynamics.

Primary Risk Indicators

The past 10-20 years have brought considerable volatility to the stock market, with Murphy USA experiencing notable price swings. Murphy USA has reflected this volatile environment with periods of significant price swings.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.64
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.84
σ
Overall volatility
62.59
Ir
Information ratio 0.21

Investor Alerts and Insights

Alerts and suggestions for Murphy USA give investors a structured way to monitor the stock for material events. Murphy USA alerts cover shifts in fundamentals, technical conditions, and significant market-moving events.

Price Density Drivers

Price behavior in Murphy USA reflects the combined effect of buyer and seller positioning dynamics and market sentiment. Reviewing the indicators below provides context for understanding the current drivers of Murphy USA price.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding19.53 million
Cash And Short Term Investments28.9 million

Murphy USA Fundamentals Growth

Murphy USA Stock performance is fundamentally tied to Murphy USA's financial health and growth outlook. Investors track revenue and earnings growth, margin stability, and balance sheet health for Murphy USA Stock.

Performance Metrics & Calculation Methodology

Return quality for Murphy USA evaluates how consistent and repeatable performance has been across periods. Inconsistent returns may indicate sensitivity to regime shifts or concentrated factor exposure. Murphy USA shows ROE of 80.35%, ROA of 11.42% (TTM).

Murphy USA figures are aggregated from periodic company reporting and market reference feeds and normalized across reporting formats. Return and risk statistics are calculated from historical price series.

Editorial review and methodology oversight provided by: Rifka Kats, Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board