Semtech Stock Performance

SMTC Stock  USD 86.53  2.00  2.26%   
On a scale of 0 to 100, Semtech holds a performance score of 12. The entity has a beta of 1.96, which indicates a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Semtech will likely underperform. Please check Semtech's downside variance, and the relationship between the treynor ratio and kurtosis , to make a quick decision on whether Semtech's existing price patterns will revert.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Good

 
Weak
 
Strong
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in Semtech are ranked lower than 12 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. In spite of rather uncertain basic indicators, Semtech exhibited solid returns over the last few months and may actually be approaching a breakup point. ...more

Actual Historical Performance (%)

One Day Return
(2.26)
Five Day Return
1.35
Year To Date Return
14.97
Ten Year Return
432.49
All Time Return
7.4 K
Last Split Factor
2:1
Ex Dividend Date
1980-09-05
Last Split Date
2000-09-26
1
Heres How Much a 1000 Investment in Semtech Made 10 Years Ago Would Be Worth Today
12/05/2025
2
Semtech Corporation ABullCase Theory
12/18/2025
3
Disposition of 2438 shares by Hong Hou of Semtech at 73.69 subject to Rule 16b-3
01/02/2026
4
Disposition of 1333 shares by Mark Lin of Semtech at 76.2 subject to Rule 16b-3
01/05/2026
5
A Look At Semtech Valuation After Recent Share Price Weakness And Long Term Returns
01/06/2026
6
Semtech, IPG Photonics, Allegro MicroSystems, and Power Integrations Shares Are Soaring, What You Need To Know
01/15/2026
7
Semtech Is Up 7.0 percent After Beating Estimates And Showcasing AI And 5G Exposure
01/16/2026
8
Disposition of 500 shares by Walsh Paul V Jr of Semtech at 78.25 subject to Rule 16b-3
01/21/2026
9
Semtech Launches Industrys Most Power-Efficient Rugged 5G RedCap Routers
01/27/2026
10
Is Semtechs UltraLowPower 5G RedCap Bet Reframing Its IoT Competitive Edge
01/28/2026
11
Can Semtech Turn UltraLow-Power 5G RedCap Routers Into a Durable IoT Edge Advantage
02/04/2026
12
Assessing Semtech Valuation After New 5G RedCap Router Launch
02/09/2026
Begin Period Cash Flow128.6 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-11.9 M

Semtech Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  6,466  in Semtech on November 15, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of  2,187  from holding Semtech or generate 33.82% return on investment over 90 days. Semtech is currently generating 0.5463% in daily expected returns and assumes 3.4971% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. In different words, 31% of stocks are less volatile than Semtech, and 89% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Semtech is expected to generate 4.5 times more return on investment than the market. However, the company is 4.5 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about 0.16 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.13 per unit of risk.

Semtech Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Semtech Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 86.53 90 days 86.53 
nearly 4.95
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Semtech to move above the current price in 90 days from now is nearly 4.95 (This Semtech probability density function shows the probability of Semtech Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.96 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Semtech will likely underperform. Additionally Semtech has an alpha of 0.1942, implying that it can generate a 0.19 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Semtech Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Semtech

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Semtech. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Semtech's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
82.3885.8889.38
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
78.6882.1895.18
Details
14 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
75.9283.4392.61
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.370.430.50
Details

Semtech Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Semtech is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Semtech's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Semtech, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Semtech within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.19
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.96
σ
Overall volatility
6.34
Ir
Information ratio 0.07

Semtech Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Semtech for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Semtech can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Semtech appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 909.29 M. Net Loss for the year was (161.9 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 543.28 M.
Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from simplywall.st: Assessing Semtech Valuation After New 5G RedCap Router Launch

Semtech Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Semtech Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Semtech's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Semtech's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding71.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments164.5 M

Semtech Fundamentals Growth

Semtech Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Semtech, and Semtech fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Semtech Stock performance.

About Semtech Performance

By analyzing Semtech's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into Semtech's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if Semtech has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if Semtech has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Days Of Inventory On Hand 118.70  90.27 
Return On Tangible Assets(0.22)(0.21)
Return On Capital Employed 0.05  0.09 
Return On Assets(0.13)(0.12)
Return On Equity(0.27)(0.26)

Things to note about Semtech performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Semtech for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Semtech help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Semtech appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 909.29 M. Net Loss for the year was (161.9 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 543.28 M.
Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from simplywall.st: Assessing Semtech Valuation After New 5G RedCap Router Launch
Evaluating Semtech's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Semtech's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing Semtech's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Semtech's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Semtech's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Semtech's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Semtech's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Semtech's stock. These opinions can provide insight into Semtech's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Semtech's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Semtech's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

Complementary Tools for Semtech Stock analysis

When running Semtech's price analysis, check to measure Semtech's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Semtech is operating at the current time. Most of Semtech's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Semtech's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Semtech's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Semtech to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Portfolio Suggestion
Get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios
Sign In To Macroaxis
Sign in to explore Macroaxis' wealth optimization platform and fintech modules
Price Ceiling Movement
Calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments
AI Portfolio Prophet
Use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities
Global Markets Map
Get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes
Insider Screener
Find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance
Sync Your Broker
Sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors.
Bonds Directory
Find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies
Portfolio Analyzer
Portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine