Arbor Realty Trust Stock Price Prediction
| ABR Stock | USD 7.70 0.04 0.52% |
Momentum 37
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.36) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.245 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.932 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.838 | Wall Street Target Price 8.875 |
Using Arbor Realty hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Arbor Realty Trust from the perspective of Arbor Realty response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Arbor Realty using Arbor Realty's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Arbor using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Arbor Realty's stock price.
Arbor Realty Short Interest
An investor who is long Arbor Realty may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Arbor Realty and may potentially protect profits, hedge Arbor Realty with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 10.4357 | Short Percent 0.2903 | Short Ratio 14.23 | Shares Short Prior Month 46.8 M | 50 Day MA 8.3728 |
Arbor Realty Trust Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Arbor Realty's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Arbor. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Arbor can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Arbor Realty Trust. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Arbor Realty's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Arbor Realty.
Arbor Realty Implied Volatility | 1.01 |
Arbor Realty's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Arbor Realty Trust stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Arbor Realty's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Arbor Realty stock will not fluctuate a lot when Arbor Realty's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Arbor Realty to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Arbor because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Arbor Realty after-hype prediction price | USD 7.7 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Arbor contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Arbor Realty Trust will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0631% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Arbor Realty trading at USD 7.7, that is roughly USD 0.004861 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Arbor Realty's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Arbor Realty Trust options at the current volatility level of 1.01%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Arbor Realty Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Arbor Realty After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Arbor Realty at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Arbor Realty or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Arbor Realty, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Arbor Realty Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Arbor Realty's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Arbor Realty's historical news coverage. Arbor Realty's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.00 and 10.40, respectively. We have considered Arbor Realty's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Arbor Realty is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Arbor Realty Trust is based on 3 months time horizon.
Arbor Realty Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Arbor Realty is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Arbor Realty backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Arbor Realty, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.57 | 2.69 | 0.17 | 0.11 | 11 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
7.70 | 7.70 | 0.00 |
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Arbor Realty Hype Timeline
On the 27th of January Arbor Realty Trust is traded for 7.70. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.17, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.11. Arbor is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.57%. %. The volatility of related hype on Arbor Realty is about 1407.56%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.81. About 60.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.64. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Arbor Realty Trust has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.2. The entity last dividend was issued on the 14th of November 2025. The firm had 10:1 split on the 30th of August 2012. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Arbor Realty Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Arbor Realty Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Arbor Realty's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Arbor Realty's future price movements. Getting to know how Arbor Realty's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Arbor Realty may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DX | Dynex Capital | (0.04) | 7 per month | 0.44 | 0.16 | 1.89 | (1.08) | 3.57 | |
| FBRT | Franklin BSP Realty | 0.1 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.09 | (1.56) | 5.63 | |
| ARR | ARMOUR Residential REIT | 0.22 | 10 per month | 0.89 | 0.18 | 2.17 | (1.61) | 6.26 | |
| ADC | Agree Realty | (0.49) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 1.23 | (1.37) | 3.42 | |
| ARI | Apollo Commercial Real | 1.85 | 12 per month | 1.05 | (0.05) | 1.95 | (1.72) | 4.99 | |
| PMT | PennyMac Mortgage Investment | 0.15 | 9 per month | 0.95 | 0.12 | 2.51 | (2.21) | 11.78 | |
| LADR | Ladder Capital Corp | (0.09) | 10 per month | 1.02 | (0.02) | 1.74 | (1.54) | 4.94 | |
| TRTX | TPG RE Finance | 0.06 | 6 per month | 1.09 | (0.0004) | 1.47 | (1.65) | 6.00 | |
| EFC | Ellington Financial | (0.04) | 11 per month | 0.86 | (0.0005) | 1.27 | (1.36) | 6.68 |
Arbor Realty Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Arbor price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Arbor using various technical indicators. When you analyze Arbor charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Arbor Realty Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Arbor Realty stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Arbor Realty Trust, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Arbor Realty based on analysis of Arbor Realty hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Arbor Realty's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Arbor Realty's related companies. | 2023 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.14 | 0.17 | 0.12 | Price To Sales Ratio | 3.9 | 4.79 | 5.93 |
Pair Trading with Arbor Realty
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Arbor Realty position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Arbor Realty will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Arbor Stock
Moving against Arbor Stock
| 0.88 | CMRE | Costamare | PairCorr |
| 0.86 | NFPDF | Nissin Foods Holdings Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.85 | CBFC | CNB Financial Services | PairCorr |
| 0.82 | MITT | AG Mortgage Investment | PairCorr |
| 0.77 | FMCB | Farmers Merchants Bancorp | PairCorr |
| 0.69 | PAL | Proficient Auto Logistics | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Arbor Realty could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Arbor Realty when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Arbor Realty - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Arbor Realty Trust to buy it.
The correlation of Arbor Realty is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Arbor Realty moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Arbor Realty Trust moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Arbor Realty can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Arbor Stock Analysis
When running Arbor Realty's price analysis, check to measure Arbor Realty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Arbor Realty is operating at the current time. Most of Arbor Realty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Arbor Realty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Arbor Realty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Arbor Realty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.