Adtran Inc Stock Price Patterns
| ADTN Stock | USD 10.40 0.54 5.48% |
Momentum 59
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using ADTRAN hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ADTRAN Inc from the perspective of ADTRAN response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in ADTRAN to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying ADTRAN because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
ADTRAN after-hype prediction price | USD 10.29 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out ADTRAN Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ADTRAN's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ADTRAN After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of ADTRAN at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ADTRAN or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ADTRAN, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
ADTRAN Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting ADTRAN's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ADTRAN's historical news coverage. ADTRAN's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 7.66 and 12.92, respectively. We have considered ADTRAN's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
ADTRAN is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ADTRAN Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
ADTRAN Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ADTRAN is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ADTRAN backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ADTRAN, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.45 | 2.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
10.40 | 10.29 | 1.06 |
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ADTRAN Hype Timeline
ADTRAN Inc is presently traded for 10.40. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. ADTRAN is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 10.29. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -1.06%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.45%. The volatility of related hype on ADTRAN is about 37285.71%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.40. About 94.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 405.0. ADTRAN Inc recorded a loss per share of 1.01. The entity last dividend was issued on the 18th of August 2023. The firm had 2:1 split on the 16th of December 2003. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out ADTRAN Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.ADTRAN Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ADTRAN's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ADTRAN's future price movements. Getting to know how ADTRAN's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ADTRAN may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GILT | Gilat Satellite Networks | 0.00 | 0 per month | 5.02 | 0.05 | 5.36 | (4.88) | 18.29 | |
| AOSL | Alpha and Omega | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.24 | 0.03 | 5.18 | (4.92) | 12.12 | |
| NTGR | NETGEAR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.30) | 2.58 | (4.06) | 9.49 | |
| ITRN | Ituran Location and | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.18 | 0.14 | 4.15 | (2.35) | 8.22 | |
| CRSR | Corsair Gaming | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 3.87 | (4.74) | 14.51 | |
| YMT | Yimutian American Depositary | 0.00 | 0 per month | 6.04 | (0.01) | 12.06 | (8.89) | 29.18 | |
| AIOT | PowerFleet | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 5.18 | (5.38) | 12.51 | |
| OPFI | OppFi Inc | 0.07 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.89 | (3.42) | 11.92 | |
| SSYS | Stratasys | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.30 | 0.07 | 6.06 | (4.07) | 19.51 | |
| LAES | SEALSQ Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 10.08 | (8.80) | 24.17 |
ADTRAN Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ADTRAN price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ADTRAN using various technical indicators. When you analyze ADTRAN charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About ADTRAN Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of ADTRAN stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as ADTRAN Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of ADTRAN based on analysis of ADTRAN hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to ADTRAN's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to ADTRAN's related companies.
Pair Trading with ADTRAN
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if ADTRAN position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in ADTRAN will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with ADTRAN Stock
Moving against ADTRAN Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to ADTRAN could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace ADTRAN when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back ADTRAN - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling ADTRAN Inc to buy it.
The correlation of ADTRAN is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as ADTRAN moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if ADTRAN Inc moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for ADTRAN can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out ADTRAN Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Financial Widgets module to easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets.
Will Communications Equipment sector continue expanding? Could ADTRAN diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ADTRAN. If investors know ADTRAN will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every ADTRAN data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
The market value of ADTRAN Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ADTRAN that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ADTRAN's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ADTRAN's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because ADTRAN's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ADTRAN's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Understanding that ADTRAN's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether ADTRAN represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Meanwhile, ADTRAN's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.