Amtrust Financial Services Stock Price Prediction
| AFSIM Stock | USD 14.85 0.40 2.62% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
64
Oversold | Overbought |
Using AmTrust Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AmTrust Financial Services from the perspective of AmTrust Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in AmTrust Financial to buy its pink sheet at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying AmTrust because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell pink sheets at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
AmTrust Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 14.85 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
AmTrust |
AmTrust Financial After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of AmTrust Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AmTrust Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of AmTrust Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
AmTrust Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting AmTrust Financial's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AmTrust Financial's historical news coverage. AmTrust Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.53 and 16.17, respectively. We have considered AmTrust Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
AmTrust Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AmTrust Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
AmTrust Financial Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as AmTrust Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AmTrust Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AmTrust Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
14.85 | 14.85 | 0.00 |
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AmTrust Financial Hype Timeline
AmTrust Financial is presently traded for 14.85. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. AmTrust is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.04%. %. The volatility of related hype on AmTrust Financial is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.85. The company last dividend was issued on the 28th of February 2023. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out AmTrust Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.AmTrust Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to AmTrust Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AmTrust Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how AmTrust Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AmTrust Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AFSIA | AmTrust Financial Services | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.82 | (0.02) | 1.89 | (1.79) | 6.74 | |
| AFSIP | AmTrust Financial Services | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.27 | 0.01 | 2.92 | (2.49) | 7.09 | |
| AFSIN | AmTrust Financial Services | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.97 | (0.03) | 3.26 | (1.85) | 14.15 | |
| AHL-PE | Aspen Insurance Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.01 | (0.05) | 2.02 | (1.99) | 5.30 | |
| AFSIB | AmTrust Financial Services | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.37 | (0.04) | 2.87 | (2.79) | 9.20 |
AmTrust Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine AmTrust price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AmTrust using various technical indicators. When you analyze AmTrust charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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About AmTrust Financial Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of AmTrust Financial stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as AmTrust Financial Services, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of AmTrust Financial based on analysis of AmTrust Financial hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to AmTrust Financial's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to AmTrust Financial's related companies.
Story Coverage note for AmTrust Financial
The number of cover stories for AmTrust Financial depends on current market conditions and AmTrust Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AmTrust Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AmTrust Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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AmTrust Financial Short Properties
AmTrust Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when AmTrust Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of AmTrust Financial Services often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential AmTrust Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AmTrust Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 196.1 M |
Other Information on Investing in AmTrust Pink Sheet
AmTrust Financial financial ratios help investors to determine whether AmTrust Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in AmTrust with respect to the benefits of owning AmTrust Financial security.