Alger Smallcap Growth Fund Price Prediction
| AGSCX Fund | USD 6.90 0.01 0.14% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
63
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Alger Smallcap hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alger Smallcap Growth from the perspective of Alger Smallcap response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Alger Smallcap to buy its mutual fund at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Alger because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell mutual funds at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Alger Smallcap after-hype prediction price | USD 6.9 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Alger |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alger Smallcap's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Alger Smallcap After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Alger Smallcap at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alger Smallcap or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Alger Smallcap, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Alger Smallcap Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Alger Smallcap's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Alger Smallcap's historical news coverage. Alger Smallcap's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.57 and 8.23, respectively. We have considered Alger Smallcap's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Alger Smallcap is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alger Smallcap Growth is based on 3 months time horizon.
Alger Smallcap Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Alger Smallcap is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alger Smallcap backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Alger Smallcap, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 1.34 | 0.50 | 0.01 | 3 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In about 3 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
6.90 | 6.90 | 0.00 |
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Alger Smallcap Hype Timeline
Alger Smallcap Growth is presently traded for 6.90. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.5, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Alger is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 45.58%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.17%. %. The volatility of related hype on Alger Smallcap is about 2181.4%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.89. The company last dividend was issued on the 18th of December 2019. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 3 days. Check out Alger Smallcap Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Alger Smallcap Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Alger Smallcap's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Alger Smallcap's future price movements. Getting to know how Alger Smallcap's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Alger Smallcap may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MDMTX | Blrc Sgy Mnp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.25 | (0.47) | 0.38 | (0.56) | 1.33 | |
| BXDCX | Barings Active Short | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.90) | 0.22 | (0.11) | 0.65 | |
| PACEX | T Rowe Price | (0.01) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.67) | 0.32 | (0.22) | 0.97 | |
| NEITX | Nebraska Municipal Fund | (0.45) | 1 per month | 0.27 | (0.41) | 0.43 | (0.32) | 1.62 | |
| AOUNX | Angel Oak Ultrashort | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (1.07) | 0.10 | (0.10) | 0.61 | |
| ASTIX | Astor Longshort Fund | 0.03 | 2 per month | 0.26 | (0.18) | 0.57 | (0.64) | 1.79 | |
| BBINX | Bbh Intermediate Municipal | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.15 | (0.65) | 0.29 | (0.29) | 1.07 |
Alger Smallcap Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Alger price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alger using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alger charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Alger Smallcap Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Alger Smallcap stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Alger Smallcap Growth, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Alger Smallcap based on analysis of Alger Smallcap hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Alger Smallcap's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Alger Smallcap's related companies.
Story Coverage note for Alger Smallcap
The number of cover stories for Alger Smallcap depends on current market conditions and Alger Smallcap's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alger Smallcap is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alger Smallcap's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Alger Mutual Fund
Alger Smallcap financial ratios help investors to determine whether Alger Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Alger with respect to the benefits of owning Alger Smallcap security.
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