Alico Inc Stock Price Prediction
| ALCO Stock | USD 26.47 0.03 0.11% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
54
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.352 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.40) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.38) | Wall Street Target Price 35 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.25) |
Using Alico hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alico Inc from the perspective of Alico response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Alico to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Alico because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Alico after-hype prediction price | USD 26.21 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Alico |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alico's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Alico After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Alico at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alico or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Alico, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Alico Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Alico's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Alico's historical news coverage. Alico's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 23.89 and 28.53, respectively. We have considered Alico's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Alico is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alico Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Alico Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Alico is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alico backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Alico, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 2.34 | 0.26 | 0.03 | 8 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
26.47 | 26.21 | 0.98 |
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Alico Hype Timeline
Alico Inc is presently traded for 26.47. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.26, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Alico is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 26.21. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 107.34%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.98%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.12%. The volatility of related hype on Alico is about 914.39%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 26.50. About 31.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.75. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Alico Inc last dividend was issued on the 27th of September 2024. The entity had 4:1 split on the 23rd of February 1987. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Alico Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Alico Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Alico's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Alico's future price movements. Getting to know how Alico's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Alico may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FDP | Fresh Del Monte | 1.25 | 9 per month | 0.92 | 0.10 | 2.30 | (1.99) | 12.38 | |
| SANW | SW Seed Company | 0.04 | 9 per month | 6.34 | 0.05 | 15.91 | (10.31) | 38.92 | |
| AGRO | Adecoagro SA | (0.09) | 8 per month | 1.47 | 0.00 | 2.04 | (2.68) | 8.94 | |
| LND | Brasilagro Adr | (0.06) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.19 | (2.15) | 6.34 | |
| LMNR | Limoneira Co | (0.65) | 9 per month | 1.59 | 0.13 | 5.63 | (3.01) | 11.73 | |
| DOLE | Dole PLC | 0.03 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.45 | (2.60) | 15.22 | |
| CALM | Cal Maine Foods | 1.82 | 8 per month | 0.83 | 0.20 | 3.33 | (1.86) | 9.06 | |
| BG | Bunge Limited | 1.07 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 2.01 | (2.26) | 9.04 | |
| AFRIW | Forafric Global PLC | (0.06) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 10.71 | (12.50) | 32.86 | |
| ASAGF | Australian Agricultural | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.15 | (0.04) | 2.27 | (2.97) | 15.63 | |
| AAGRY | Astra Agro Lestari | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 14.09 | |
| AGRIW | AgriFORCE Growing Systems | (0) | 5 per month | 23.28 | 0.14 | 86.21 | (41.82) | 161.84 | |
| TSN | Tyson Foods | (0.02) | 9 per month | 1.44 | (0.06) | 1.73 | (2.48) | 9.06 |
Alico Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Alico price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alico using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alico charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Alico Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Alico stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Alico Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Alico based on analysis of Alico hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Alico's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Alico's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.026 | 0.0215 | 0.0132 | Price To Sales Ratio | 4.76 | 2.8 | 4.49 |
Story Coverage note for Alico
The number of cover stories for Alico depends on current market conditions and Alico's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alico is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alico's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Alico Short Properties
Alico's future price predictability will typically decrease when Alico's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Alico Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Alico's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alico's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 7.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 M |
Check out Alico Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.
Is Agricultural Products & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alico. If investors know Alico will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alico listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.352 | Dividend Share 0.2 | Earnings Share 3.41 | Revenue Per Share 6.089 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.868 |
The market value of Alico Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alico that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alico's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alico's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alico's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alico's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alico's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alico is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alico's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.