Amazon Inc Stock Price Patterns
| AMZN Stock | USD 239.30 2.43 1.01% |
Momentum 51
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.364 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.86 | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.0895 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.8982 | Wall Street Target Price 296.2882 |
Using Amazon hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Amazon Inc from the perspective of Amazon response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Amazon using Amazon's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Amazon using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Amazon's stock price.
Amazon Short Interest
An investor who is long Amazon may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Amazon and may potentially protect profits, hedge Amazon with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 221.4988 | Short Percent 0.0081 | Short Ratio 2.02 | Shares Short Prior Month 73.4 M | 50 Day MA 232.4082 |
Amazon Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Amazon's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Amazon. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Amazon can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Amazon Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Amazon's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Amazon.
Amazon Implied Volatility | 0.4 |
Amazon's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Amazon Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Amazon's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Amazon stock will not fluctuate a lot when Amazon's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Amazon to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Amazon because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Amazon after-hype prediction price | USD 239.32 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Amazon contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Amazon Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.025% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Amazon trading at USD 239.3, that is roughly USD 0.0598 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Amazon's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Amazon Inc options at the current volatility level of 0.4%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Amazon Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Amazon After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Amazon at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Amazon or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Amazon, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Amazon Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Amazon's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Amazon's historical news coverage. Amazon's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 237.72 and 240.92, respectively. We have considered Amazon's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Amazon is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Amazon Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Amazon Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Amazon is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Amazon backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Amazon, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 1.60 | 0.02 | 0.24 | 5 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
239.30 | 239.32 | 0.01 |
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Amazon Hype Timeline
Amazon Inc is presently traded for 239.30. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.24. Amazon is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 239.32 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.01%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.08%. The volatility of related hype on Amazon is about 52.6%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 239.54. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 637.96 B. Net Income was 59.25 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 345.98 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Amazon Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Amazon Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Amazon's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Amazon's future price movements. Getting to know how Amazon's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Amazon may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BABA | Alibaba Group Holding | (2.21) | 6 per month | 2.00 | (0.01) | 5.10 | (3.43) | 13.40 | |
| RERE | ATRenew Inc DRC | (0.33) | 6 per month | 2.10 | 0.21 | 6.33 | (3.03) | 13.51 | |
| CASY | Caseys General Stores | 17.51 | 9 per month | 1.32 | 0.11 | 2.23 | (2.03) | 9.89 | |
| LQDT | Liquidity Services | 0.74 | 8 per month | 1.60 | 0.14 | 3.68 | (2.98) | 16.86 | |
| ETSY | Etsy Inc | 14.24 | 17 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 3.69 | (5.03) | 15.04 | |
| RH | RH | 0.52 | 9 per month | 2.92 | 0.05 | 6.59 | (4.89) | 15.48 | |
| LITB | LightInTheBox Holding Co | 0.03 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.01) | 10.87 | (9.47) | 28.17 | |
| RVLV | Revolve Group LLC | (0.02) | 10 per month | 2.25 | 0.10 | 6.43 | (3.71) | 16.41 | |
| GME | GameStop Corp | 0.02 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 4.05 | (3.42) | 9.04 | |
| TLF | Tandy Leather Factory | (0.08) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.68 | (2.63) | 8.82 |
Amazon Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Amazon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Amazon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Amazon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Amazon Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Amazon stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Amazon Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Amazon based on analysis of Amazon hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Amazon's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Amazon's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Days Sales Outstanding | 33.18 | 31.73 | 28.55 | 17.18 | PTB Ratio | 7.76 | 8.03 | 9.24 | 8.78 |
Pair Trading with Amazon
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Amazon position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Amazon will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Amazon Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Amazon could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Amazon when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Amazon - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Amazon Inc to buy it.
The correlation of Amazon is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Amazon moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Amazon Inc moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Amazon can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Amazon Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Sign In To Macroaxis module to sign in to explore Macroaxis' wealth optimization platform and fintech modules.
Will Broadline Retail sector continue expanding? Could Amazon diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Amazon. If investors know Amazon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Amazon data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.364 | Earnings Share 7.08 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.134 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Amazon Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Amazon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Amazon's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Amazon's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Amazon's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Amazon's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Amazon's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Amazon represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Meanwhile, Amazon's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.