Amazon Inc Stock Price Prediction
| AMZN Stock | USD 198.38 4.50 2.22% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
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Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.521 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.34 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.1191 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.1587 | Wall Street Target Price 234.1359 |
Using Amazon hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Amazon Inc from the perspective of Amazon response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Amazon Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Amazon's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Amazon. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Amazon can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Amazon Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Amazon's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Amazon.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Amazon to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Amazon because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Amazon after-hype prediction price | USD 198.38 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Amazon After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Amazon at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Amazon or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Amazon, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Amazon Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Amazon's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Amazon's historical news coverage. Amazon's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 196.54 and 200.22, respectively. We have considered Amazon's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Amazon is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Amazon Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Amazon Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Amazon is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Amazon backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Amazon, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.21 | 1.84 | 0.32 | 0.97 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
198.38 | 198.38 | 0.00 |
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Amazon Hype Timeline
Amazon Inc is presently traded for 198.38. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.32, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.97. Amazon is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 119.48%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.21%. %. The volatility of related hype on Amazon is about 39.64%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 197.41. About 64.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.69. Amazon Inc had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 20:1 split on the 6th of June 2022. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Amazon Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Amazon Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Amazon's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Amazon's future price movements. Getting to know how Amazon's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Amazon may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| JD | JD Inc Adr | (2.08) | 8 per month | 3.07 | 0.09 | 6.76 | (6.99) | 23.41 | |
| PDD | PDD Holdings | (1.52) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 4.85 | (6.40) | 29.37 | |
| SE | Sea | (1.67) | 9 per month | 1.32 | 0.19 | 4.65 | (2.50) | 12.95 | |
| MELI | MercadoLibre | (37.17) | 9 per month | 3.63 | (0.04) | 2.60 | (2.84) | 20.82 | |
| BABA | Alibaba Group Holding | (0.31) | 9 per month | 2.44 | (0.01) | 4.82 | (4.27) | 16.74 | |
| VIPS | Vipshop Holdings Limited | (0.44) | 10 per month | 2.17 | 0.01 | 4.34 | (4.47) | 17.40 | |
| JMIA | Jumia Technologies AG | (0.03) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 5.64 | (6.04) | 28.82 | |
| GLBE | Global E Online | (0.35) | 7 per month | 1.39 | 0.18 | 4.70 | (2.91) | 9.43 | |
| ETSY | Etsy Inc | 1.79 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.33 | (4.28) | 13.37 |
Amazon Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Amazon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Amazon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Amazon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Amazon Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Amazon stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Amazon Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Amazon based on analysis of Amazon hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Amazon's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Amazon's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Days Sales Outstanding | 25.55 | 30.08 | 33.18 | 34.84 | PTB Ratio | 12.2 | 5.86 | 7.76 | 7.37 |
Story Coverage note for Amazon
The number of cover stories for Amazon depends on current market conditions and Amazon's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Amazon is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Amazon's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Amazon Short Properties
Amazon's future price predictability will typically decrease when Amazon's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Amazon Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Amazon's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Amazon's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 10.5 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 86.8 B |
Check out Amazon Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.
Is Broadline Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Amazon. If investors know Amazon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Amazon listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.521 | Earnings Share 4.69 | Revenue Per Share 59.486 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.11 | Return On Assets 0.0707 |
The market value of Amazon Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Amazon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Amazon's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Amazon's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Amazon's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Amazon's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Amazon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Amazon is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Amazon's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.