American Outdoor Brands Stock Price Prediction
| AOUT Stock | USD 17.18 0.01 0.06% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
68
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.79) | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.45 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.565 | Wall Street Target Price 17.5 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.205 |
Using American Outdoor hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American Outdoor Brands from the perspective of American Outdoor response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards American Outdoor using American Outdoor's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards American using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of American Outdoor's stock price.
American Outdoor Short Interest
An investor who is long American Outdoor may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about American Outdoor and may potentially protect profits, hedge American Outdoor with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 10.0563 | Short Percent 0.0039 | Short Ratio 1.4 | Shares Short Prior Month 115.6 K | 50 Day MA 14.0495 |
American Outdoor Brands Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to American Outdoor's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in American. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding American can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around American Outdoor Brands. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of American Outdoor's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about American Outdoor.
American Outdoor Implied Volatility | 0.95 |
American Outdoor's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of American Outdoor Brands stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if American Outdoor's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that American Outdoor stock will not fluctuate a lot when American Outdoor's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in American Outdoor to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying American because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
American Outdoor after-hype prediction price | USD 18.42 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current American contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that American Outdoor Brands will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0594% per day over the life of the 2025-04-17 option contract. With American Outdoor trading at USD 17.18, that is roughly USD 0.0102 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating American Outdoor's daily price movement you should consider acquiring American Outdoor Brands options at the current volatility level of 0.95%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
American |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Outdoor's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Outdoor After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of American Outdoor at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in American Outdoor or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of American Outdoor, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
American Outdoor Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting American Outdoor's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on American Outdoor's historical news coverage. American Outdoor's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.52 and 22.32, respectively. We have considered American Outdoor's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
American Outdoor is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Outdoor Brands is based on 3 months time horizon.
American Outdoor Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as American Outdoor is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Outdoor backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with American Outdoor, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.14 | 3.93 | 1.24 | 0.29 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
17.18 | 18.42 | 7.22 |
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American Outdoor Hype Timeline
American Outdoor Brands is presently traded for 17.18. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.24, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.29. American is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 18.42 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 7.22%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 1.14%. The volatility of related hype on American Outdoor is about 1526.21%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.89. The company has Profit Margin (PM) of (0.05) %, which may suggest that it does not properly executes on its current pricing strategies or is unable to control all of the operational costs. This is way below average. Similarly, it shows Operating Margin (OM) of (0.06) %, which suggests for every $100 dollars of sales, it generated a net operating loss of $0.06. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out American Outdoor Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.American Outdoor Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to American Outdoor's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict American Outdoor's future price movements. Getting to know how American Outdoor's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how American Outdoor may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CLAR | Clarus Corp | 0.08 | 7 per month | 2.86 | 0.09 | 4.35 | (5.60) | 18.59 | |
| ESCA | Escalade Incorporated | (0.13) | 7 per month | 2.68 | 0.05 | 4.95 | (4.55) | 15.09 | |
| JOUT | Johnson Outdoors | 0.45 | 6 per month | 2.36 | (0.01) | 3.95 | (4.26) | 11.70 | |
| JAKK | JAKKS Pacific | (1.26) | 5 per month | 2.13 | 0.06 | 3.20 | (3.72) | 20.03 | |
| OSW | OneSpaWorld Holdings | (0.26) | 10 per month | 1.16 | 0.14 | 3.84 | (2.66) | 9.31 | |
| LEAT | Leatt Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 4.17 | (4.55) | 17.65 | |
| SEAS | SEAS Old | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.18 | (0.02) | 3.85 | (3.45) | 10.32 | |
| FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | (0.94) | 9 per month | 1.57 | 0.03 | 4.52 | (2.75) | 10.63 |
American Outdoor Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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About American Outdoor Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of American Outdoor stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as American Outdoor Brands, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of American Outdoor based on analysis of American Outdoor hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to American Outdoor's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to American Outdoor's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2025 (projected) | Days Sales Outstanding | 53.63 | 47.1 | 59.94 | PTB Ratio | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.91 |
Story Coverage note for American Outdoor
The number of cover stories for American Outdoor depends on current market conditions and American Outdoor's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that American Outdoor is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about American Outdoor's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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American Outdoor Short Properties
American Outdoor's future price predictability will typically decrease when American Outdoor's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of American Outdoor Brands often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential American Outdoor's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Outdoor's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 13 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 29.7 M |
Additional Tools for American Stock Analysis
When running American Outdoor's price analysis, check to measure American Outdoor's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Outdoor is operating at the current time. Most of American Outdoor's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Outdoor's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Outdoor's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Outdoor to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.