Arena Group Holdings Stock Price Patterns
| AREN Stock | USD 3.89 0.05 1.30% |
Momentum 48
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.19 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.73 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.91 | Wall Street Target Price 12 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.656 |
Using Arena Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Arena Group Holdings from the perspective of Arena Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Arena Group using Arena Group's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Arena using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Arena Group's stock price.
Arena Group Implied Volatility | 1.9 |
Arena Group's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Arena Group Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Arena Group's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Arena Group stock will not fluctuate a lot when Arena Group's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Arena Group to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Arena because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Arena Group after-hype prediction price | USD 3.9 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Arena Group Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Arena Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Arena Group After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Arena Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Arena Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Arena Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Arena Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Arena Group's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Arena Group's historical news coverage. Arena Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.20 and 7.90, respectively. We have considered Arena Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Arena Group is moderately volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Arena Group Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Arena Group Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Arena Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Arena Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Arena Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.41 | 4.00 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
3.89 | 3.90 | 0.26 |
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Arena Group Hype Timeline
Arena Group Holdings is presently traded for 3.89. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Arena is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 3.9 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is forecasted to be 0.26%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.41%. The volatility of related hype on Arena Group is about 7843.14%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.91. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 125.91 M. Net Loss for the year was (100.71 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 77.17 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Arena Group Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Arena Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Arena Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Arena Group's future price movements. Getting to know how Arena Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Arena Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| UPXI | Upexi Inc | 0.08 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 11.51 | (10.16) | 30.97 | |
| TRVG | Trivago NV | (0.09) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.23 | (4.37) | 11.25 | |
| NEXN | Nexxen International | (0.02) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 3.08 | (3.36) | 24.48 | |
| THRY | Thryv Holdings | 0.08 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 4.32 | (6.80) | 30.17 | |
| TRUE | TrueCar | (0.01) | 9 per month | 1.81 | 0.02 | 4.74 | (3.48) | 12.10 | |
| CURI | Curiositystream | (0.03) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 5.53 | (6.20) | 33.31 | |
| SSP | E W Scripps | 0.20 | 11 per month | 3.77 | 0.11 | 7.52 | (6.60) | 53.49 | |
| ATNI | ATN International | 0.08 | 7 per month | 1.75 | 0.19 | 5.16 | (3.13) | 22.28 | |
| RDCM | Radcom | 0.31 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 3.21 | (2.72) | 10.91 | |
| ZH | Zhihu Inc ADR | (0.09) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.10 | (4.82) | 21.72 |
Arena Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Arena price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Arena using various technical indicators. When you analyze Arena charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Arena Group Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Arena Group stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Arena Group Holdings, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Arena Group based on analysis of Arena Group hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Arena Group's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Arena Group's related companies. | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 1.0 | 0.89 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.34 | 0.32 |
Pair Trading with Arena Group
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Arena Group position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Arena Group will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Arena Stock
| 0.81 | TLKMF | Telkom Indonesia Tbk | PairCorr |
| 0.65 | PPERY | Bank Mandiri Persero Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.63 | NMM | Navios Maritime Partners | PairCorr |
| 0.63 | JRVR | James River Group | PairCorr |
| 0.61 | TLK | Telkom Indonesia Tbk | PairCorr |
| 0.53 | MGTC | Megatech Corp | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Arena Group could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Arena Group when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Arena Group - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Arena Group Holdings to buy it.
The correlation of Arena Group is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Arena Group moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Arena Group Holdings moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Arena Group can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Arena Group Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.
Will Movies & Entertainment sector continue expanding? Could Arena diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arena Group. If investors know Arena will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Arena Group data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Investors evaluate Arena Group Holdings using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Arena Group's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Arena Group's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Arena Group's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Arena Group represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, Arena Group's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.